Three months ago, I was sitting at my graduation when DeMaurice Smith, the Executive Director of the NFL Player's Association, stepped to the podium as the guest speaker (and three months later I'm still unemployed, so no, I'm not gloating). I vividly remember thinking about two things - neither of which had anything to do with my future - as Smith began his droning sermon on change and pride.
1. This is the guy working for the players? No wonder Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder are so smug. We may never watch another game again.
And more importantly...
2. What about fantasy football? How will I spend my Sundays? How will I waste an immeasurable amount of time reading up on all these players if there's no season?
Thankfully, greed was sufficed, and the season is back on track. For fantasy football nerds alike, this means one hectic week of free agency in which teams swapped players at a frenzied rate. Think Microsoft, Apple, Sony and McDonald's all declaring bankruptcy, and the stock exchange only opening for an hour of trading afterward. Maybe that's a bad analogy, but either way it's a lot of player movement to catch up on.
So, I will use two blatantly unimaginative sections to break it all down for you. First off, we'll have the cliche New Faces in New Places category, detailing the mainstream players who changed teams this offseason and, more importantly, how it affected their fantasy value. And secondly, we have our Sleepers and Busts category, fairly self-explanatory.
Now this is usually the paragraph where some pompous writer tries to tell you why his or her opinion is right (myself included). But instead of the unnecessary listing of qualifications, I'll leave you with this. From July 15 through August 15 every summer, I retreat into my Excel spreadsheets to create my own little fantasy football manifesto. I endlessly skim through articles and rankings, noting worthless stats for no apparent reason. I am a fantasy football nerd. My therapist and I have come to grips with that. If a movie were made about my obsession, Michael Cera would kick my ass in it. Yeah, I'm that dorky.
But enough of the ranting and useless self-promotion. Time for Part 1.
New Faces in New Places
1. Kevin Kolb (Philadelphia to Arizona) - Of all the quarterbacks to change cities, Kolb is the only one with any possible fantasy value. And that's even though he's probably still a worse quarterback than say a Donovan McNabb or Matt Hasselbeck. However, Kevin Kolb gets to throw to Larry Fitzgerald. Even Ben Affleck looks good when he teams up with Matt Damon.
That said, Kolb is still nowhere near a fantasy starter. Hell, I wouldn't even want him as my backup. With a West Coast background, Kolb will be great for yards, but suffer in the red zone. Not even the super-likable Fitzgerald can turn Kevin Kolb into the next Kurt Warner.
2. Chris Johnson (Tennessee to ...a holdout?) - Plenty of noteworthy running backs moved on this summer, but none with any real fantasy value. Reggie Bush, Willis McGahee, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown and Marion Barber are not worth your time unless you're playing in at least a 14-team league.
And now to Chris Johnson, who didn't change teams, but also still hasn't reported to camp. There is no denying Johnson's talent and fantasy production. And Matt Hasselbeck should only help (Hasselbeck is definitely an upgrade over Kerry Collins and Vince Young). But holdouts never end well for fantasy stars. Holdouts create injuries, chemistry issues and an overall drop in production - just ask Michael Crabtree and Vincent Jackson. If Johnson reports in the next week or two, there won't be any problems. If not, draft him early at your own risk.
3. The WR Pentaverate (Plaxico Burress: jail to the Jets, Sidney Rice: Minnesota to Seattle, Roy Williams: Dallas to Chicago, Braylon Edwards: New York to San Francisco & Chad Ochocinco: Cincinnati to New England) - Talk about the usual suspects. Outside of Sidney Rice, every name listed above has a red flag attached with their file. However, when it comes to receivers, fantasy owners have to sort through the minefield to separate the bad eggs (see: Randy Moss in Tennessee) from the guys with something to prove (Tampa Bay's Mike Williams).
For the above group, the results will be mixed. Sidney Rice got what he needed - a ticket out of Minnesota and away from Tarvaris Jackson. But he landed with the Seahawks - and back with Tarvaris Jackson. Sorry Sidney, you're a fantasy benchwarmer this year.
The same goes for New York's favorite gun-wielding Super Bowl hero. Putting aside the questions about his health and remaining talent, competing with Santonio Holmes, Derrick Mason and Dustin Keller in a run-first offense leaves Plaxico undraftable.
Onto the three with some upside, starting with Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams. Edwards and Williams are the same receiver
- they are big, slow, lead the league in dropped passes every other year and are nice targets in the red zone. Since the 49ers and Bears both needed big targets in their depleted receiving corps, Edwards and Williams have a chance to both pull off double-digit touchdown seasons. Or they could completely tank. Or
Bob Saget could be a total creep? Who knows?
And finally, the most interesting case - Mr. Ochocinco. The jury is very much still out on Chad's potential impact in New England. With Tom Brady fulfilling every dream Carson Palmer never could, the Ocho might be able to finally get back to producing. Don't expect a Randy Moss-esque career resurrection from Chad, but take a chance on him as your third receiver or flex guy.
Time for the everyone's favorite past time...Sleepers & Busts.
Sleepers
1. Philip Rivers - It's difficult to consider a guy in the top 10 at his position a sleeper, but Rivers' production is still under the radar. After Aaron Rodgers at numbero uno for quarterbacks, there's a big logjam. Michael Vick's injury concerns and potential relapse leave him vulnerable, and Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been posting similar numbers for the past couple of years. But what people don't realize...so has Rivers. Indulge my boring stats for just one second.
2010
Brees - 4,620 yards & 33 TDs
Brady - 3,900 yards & 36 TDs
Manning - 4,700 yards & 33 TDs
Rivers - 4,710 yards & 30 TDs
2009
Brees - 4,388 yards & 34 TDs
Brady - 4,398 yards & 28 TDs
Manning - 4,500 yards & 33 TDs
Rivers - 4,254 yards & 28 TDs
2008
Brees - 5,069 yards & 34 TDs
Brady - tore his ACL
Manning - 4,002 yards & 27 TDs
Rivers - 4,009 yards & 34 TDs
Not much of a difference, especially if your league counts passing touchdowns for less (which most do). Throw in a healthy Antonio Gates, a receiving duo of Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd and Ryan Mathews out of the backfield and Rivers very well could be the second best fantasy quarterback this year.
2. Jahvid Best - The Lions spent their first-round pick on running back Mikel Leshoure to serve in a timeshare with Best after he spent the backend of last season hurt. Naturally, Leshoure tore his Achilles' last week and is out for the season.
Best is still as fragile as those little glass figurines we can't help but touch (and break) as kids, but his upside is tremendous. With Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson keeping the safeties out of the box, Best should have plenty up space to maneuver.
And his value goes way up in a points-per-reception (PPR) league. Think of it as Britney Spears the singer - average at best (the standard league), and then Britney Spears the singer wearing a skimpy school girl outfit and driving young boys crazy - pun intended and clearly, her sales get a lot better (the PPR league).
3. Mario Manningham - After the Giants saw half their receiving corps leave for new chances (Kevin Boss in Oakland and Steve Smith in Philadelphia), who else is left? Hakeem Nicks is still the main guy, but after his breakout season last year, plenty of double teams will be coming his way this season. The Giants should still be a run-first team, but Manningham could turn into a solid #2 or #3 receiver if he can put it together.
Busts
1. Matt Ryan - Unfortunately, being a great, young quarterback doesn't necessarily translate into being a great fantasy producer. It's hard not to like Ryan. His presence and poise are beyond his years, and he seems like a genuinely good guy. This leaves only one conclusion. Matt Ryan will be the Troy Aikman of this generation's fantasy quarterbacks - great quarterback, but his stats take a backseat to a solid running game and a focus on winning.
A lot of people believe Julio Jones will turn Ryan into a fantasy star this year. They are forgetting about Atlanta's other rookie - Jacquizz Rodgers. The former Oregon State running back, along with the steady combo of Michael Turner and Jason Snelling, will continue to dominate games by eating up the clock and controlling possession. Great formula for winning football games...not so great for winning fantasy games.
2. Any Redskin, Jaguar, Seahawk or Bronco - Let's give a team-by-team breakdown here...
Your Washington Redskins. At quarterback...(waiting)...(waiting)...(the PA guy frantically shuffles through papers)...who knows. It could be John Beck. It could be Rex Grossman. It really doesn't matter. Would you rather marry Sarah Jessica Parker or Hilary Swank?
As for the rest of the team, Ryan Torain and Tim Hightower will split time for a team that will struggle to score. No, thank you. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley are nice backup plans at this point. Sorry, Washington.
Moving on, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Another QB quandary. Keep with the steady, but not fantastic David Garrard or let rookie Blaine Gabbert start his development? Neither will do anything worthwhile. Maurice Jones-Drew is still a real nice back, but running backs and knee injuries don't mix. Let someone else take the risk. And like the Redskins, Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis are nothing more than bench players at the receiver and tight end spots.
Poor Pete Carroll. Not really. I could think of no worse penalty for all those years of under-the-table dealing at USC than having to put up with Tarvaris Jackson under center. And as awesome as Marshawn Lynch's beast mode performance was, he'll still be sharing the load with Justin Forsett this season. Like all the other offenses that struggle to score, receivers and tight ends become backup fantasy players. That means you, Sidney Rice and Zach Miller.
And now the Denver Broncos. A lot of offensive potential. Kyle Orton lit up fantasy scoreboards last year, connecting with Knowshon Moreno and Brandon Lloyd. The same thing very well could happen this year. But Tim Tebow is on the bench. In his second year, the pressure will be on the coaching staff to make Tebow the starter if the Broncos don't win early. If that happens, Moreno and Lloyd lose a lot of value.
Think Tiger Woods two years ago:
Tiger Woods now:
I don't want to take my shoes off. I just broke up with someone, Turtle, I'm exhausted.
Both these races could come down to Week 17 showdowns with the Titans traveling to Houston and Oakland hosting the Chargers.
As Chris Johnson and the Titans regained their mojo in Carolina, Tennessee reminded the Texans they haven't won the division quite yet. The Texans' bye week couldn't come at a better time as Houston prepares to rush Andre Johnson back to help Matt Leinart learn his new, three-play offense - handoff to Arian Foster left, handoff to Arian Foster right, throw it deep to Andre Johnson (only if Houston's losing, of course). Leinart nearly pulled a Yoko a few seasons ago in Arizona before Kurt Warner saved the day. Let's hope Houston isn't his new demolition ground.
