Tom, Tim, Tony &...Tarvaris? Shaking Up the NFL

Yet again, the NFL delivered another weekend full of upsets (they're just getting predictable now, Baltimore) and late-game finishes that are sure to have repercussions by the end of the season.

A few weeks ago I made some bold mid-season predictions as to who would make the playoffs and ultimately win the whole thing (surprise, the Packers are still the favorite). And while my projections were about as reliable as calling up Miss Cleo to find out if your girl is cheating, I figured I'd take another go at it, so HERE are the updated standings with the playoff teams listed below.

     NFC                                                            
1. GREEN BAY PACKERS                      
2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS                  
3. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS                    
4. DALLAS COWBOYS                          
5. CHICAGO BEARS
6. ATLANTA FALCONS

AFC
1. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
3. HOUSTON TEXANS
4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS
6. NEW YORK JETS

Only one thing changed in the NFC. Did anyone really expect this from the Chicago Bears at the beginning of the season? Well, as I begrudgingly shake my head in disbelief, I moved the Bears into the Lions' wild-card spot after Chicago literally man-handled Detroit on Sunday.

The AFC is a whole different story though. While the potential playoff teams didn't change, the seeding and future schedule importance certainly did. The Steelers and Patriots should hold off the Ravens and Jets for their respective divisions, but the much more intriguing races are in the West and South. Texans fans finally had a reason to believe this was their year - until Matt Schaub's season-ending, foot injury left them naked on their way to the dance (as did the revival of Chris Johnson in Tennessee). The same goes for the Chargers after the injuries moved from their skill guys to their linemen in their loss to the Raiders Thursday night. Both these races could come down to Week 17 showdowns with the Titans traveling to Houston and Oakland hosting the Chargers.

(I'd cast Jensen Ackles to play the up-and-coming Texans to take down CJ2K and the Titans, obviously portrayed by Samuel L. Jackson. For the Chargers, I'd have to go with Bruce Willis knocking out Russell Crowe, the perfect choice for the Raiders, in what will surely be the dirtiest fight of the year. Die Hard vs. Gladiator. Win-win. Alright, I'm done.)

Unfortunately, we still have a little while until the playoffs get here so I suppose we can talk about what went down this weekend. As usual, the division games take top billing.

The real contenders emerged this weekend
In the NFC, the Packers beating up on a weak Minnesota team at home isn't news. However, the Bears showing the Lions how real football is played may have torn the page (corny near-Bob Seger reference anyone?) on Detroit's sports resurrection.

For the South contenders, Mike Smith clearly had all the faith in his offense to gain an inch and none in his defense to stop Drew Brees from gaining 30 yards. While I can't say I agree with Smith's decision, his logic makes a lot of sense given his opponent and I don't see Atlanta quitting on him after a tough loss.

On Thursday night, the AFC West took on a whole new dynamic. Carson Palmer and Michael Bush led the way as the Raiders controlled San Diego throughout to take the division lead. These two teams will likely battle each other until the final week of the season (unless Tim Tebow and his newly unstoppable Broncos have anything to say about it).

Bengals' fans should hold their heads high. Andy Dalton made the late mistake that's expected (and forgivable) for a rookie quarterback in his first start against the Steelers. But given that A.J. Green was hurt for most of the game and Cedric Benson was his usual inept self on the ground, the fiery quarterback should keep the faith (points for a ginger joke and a Billy Joel song).

The showdown of the weekend had to belong to the AFC East. Brady and Belichick reminded everyone why they have three Super Bowl rings and Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan have yet to win one together. The Patriots offense never had problems moving the ball as Brady stuck with his short throws, but his receivers (namely tight end Rob Gronkowski) did a superb job of running after the catch against a normally sure-tackling Jets defense. Meanwhile, Marky Mark continued to disappoint Jets fans.


Playoff hopefuls struggle on the road (except in the AFC South)
After an eye-opening loss at home to the Jets last weekend, the Bills looked to rebound in Dallas - except Tony Romo made Buffalo look like the Bills from three years ago. Laurent Robinson did his best Miles Austin impersonation and DeMarco Murray continued to roll as the Cowboys looked fantastic while the Bills officially ran out of gas after a rampant start to the season. As much as I hate the Cowboys, only Jerry Jones can ruin their playoff chances right now. If Jerry forces Jason Garrett to play Felix Jones over DeMarco Murray when Felix gets healthy, we'll be reminded who really coaches the Cowboys.

Meanwhile, the current NFC-East leader came up just short as the Giants fell to the 49ers in San Francisco. Despite an early injury sidelining Frank Gore for nearly the entire game and Alex Smith being Alex Smith, the Niners defense got their stops and forced an oh-too-typical late Eli turnover. Patrick Willis has to be the non-quarterback MVP at this point in the season (slightly ahead of Matt Forte). San Fran gets their next test Thanksgiving night when they travel to Baltimore. That means Patrick Willis vs. Ray Lewis. Dear NFL Network, please split screen the entire game - one for the actual play and the other for Willis/Lewis.

Speaking of the Ravens, I think Ray Rice is still rummaging for scraps in a dumpster somewhere in a Seattle fish market. Five carries? Five carries, Cam Cameron? Your first five plays should be handing the ball to Ray Rice! Now that I got that off my chest, Baltimore's defense deserves some blame as well. The D held after some costly turnovers, but the Seahawks ran the final six minutes off the clock since the Ravens couldn't get a stop. And, right on cue, Baltimore welcomes Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals to town in a "winner is in the driver's seat for a playoff spot" divisional clash.

But in the AFC South, Houston took advantage of the reeling Buccaneers in Tampa Bay to improve to 7-3 - a win the Texans desperately needed with Schaub done. As Chris Johnson and the Titans regained their mojo in Carolina, Tennessee reminded the Texans they haven't won the division quite yet. The Texans' bye week couldn't come at a better time as Houston prepares to rush Andre Johnson back to help Matt Leinart learn his new, three-play offense - handoff to Arian Foster left, handoff to Arian Foster right, throw it deep to Andre Johnson (only if Houston's losing, of course). Leinart nearly pulled a Yoko a few seasons ago in Arizona before Kurt Warner saved the day. Let's hope Houston isn't his new demolition ground.




Toby is in HR, which technically means he works for corporate, so he's really not a part of our family. Also, he's divorced so he's really not a part of his family.

NFL Oddsmaker

Last week, the talk of the NFL was how either the New York Jets or the Pittsburgh Steelers would be your Super Bowl champion come November. The Jets failed to score a single point against a banged up Packers defense even a Trent Edwards-led Bills offense managed to score a touchdown on. Mark Sanchez is still learning in his second year, but he's likely to follow in the footsteps of fellow USC quarterbacks if he doesn't put it together soon (either underachieving with an offense featuring two Hall of Fame receivers or party it up with Laguna Beach stars until your arm goes away).

The Steelers offense didn't look much better against the Saints on Sunday night. So now we are left with a big mess when trying to figure out who we'll be watching in the big game come February. Tom Jackson and Trent Dilfer can only say the phrase "parody in the NFL" so many times. ESPN needs to let Mike Ditka go on an extensive rant about how Brad Childress is the worst thing to happen to the Vikings since Daunte Culpepper's knee went kaboom while also detailing how the Houston Texans are more of a tease than the ending of Inception (the top totally fell over). I'd feel more confident casting Clay Aiken as the new Batman than I would buying stock in any NFL team right now.

But, that being said, the Super Bowl will be rewarding if only to see Jerry Jones wipe the tears from his eyes as he is forced to watch another team hoist the Lombardi Trophy in his stadium. So let's breakdown each conference to see who are the most likely teams to play in the Super Bowl and watch a grown man cry.


NFC

New Orleans Saints (5-3) - 30% chance
Right now, the NFC is a complete toss up. But on Sunday night against Pittsburgh, the Saints defense showed they can win games while Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas get healthy. A second half turnaround should be in store for the defending champs.

Green Bay Packers (5-3) - 25% chance
The Packers got off to a slow start (probably thanks to so many people piling on the bandwagon over the summer), but look to be headed back in the right direction. Like the Saints, the Packers' biggest opponent is the injury bug. While the defense looked better last week, they could still use Al Harris and Atari Bigby to sure up that secondary. Plus, Donald Driver needs to give Aaron Rodgers all the weapons he can get since Green Bay runs the ball about as well as Snooki spells (yes, she's writing a book!).

New York Giants (5-2) - 20% chance
The G-Men have won four straight and everyone is calling for a New York/New York or Manning/Manning Super Bowl, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. While the Giants have a good defense again and some quality skill position guys, Eli Manning is still their quarterback. Eli's tied for the most INTs in the NFL so far, and has shown his ability to go cold for extended stretches before (remember last year when the Giants started 5-0 and then lost their next four games).

Atlanta Falcons (5-2) - 15% chance
The Falcons seem to be the mystery team in the NFC this year. Matt Ryan and that young offense look unstoppable at times, but if the Falcons can't run the ball effectively, can Ryan always be counted on to win games for them? In both the Falcons' losses this year, they rushed for less than 100 yards. The defense is good-but-not-great, so the Falcons' hopes likely reside with Matty Ice (I just like saying it) and the offense.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) - 10% chance
Michael Vick under center (playing the way he did a couple weeks ago) gives the Eagles a shot. The defense had been relied on to keep Philadelphia in games for years, but when Kenny Britt torches you for more than 250 yards and three scores, it's time to go back to the drawing board. The Eagles' brutal schedule and Andy Reid won't help much either. Seriously, if Creed can replace Scott Stapp why can't the Eagles replace Reid already?

Dallas Cowboys (1-6) - 0% chance
It feels so good to write this. Just for a few good laughs, let us check out where the Cowboys stand as of today.

Tony Romo: hurt and probably won't play again this year
Wade Phillips: just looks confused
DeMarcus Ware: yet to make an impact this year
Miles Austin: might be getting back together with Kim Kardashian
Dez Bryant: the lone bright spot in the Cowboys' season
Jerry Jones: needs a hug


AFC

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) - 25% chance
The AFC is once again stacked beyond belief. You could make an argument for five teams in the AFC being better than every team from the NFC. But Peyton Manning is still the best quarterback in the NFL, so the Colts top the list. Since their "out-of-nowhere" loss to the Jaguars, Indy has won three straight over pretty good teams (KC, Washington and Houston) to regain their form. The defense has greatly improved, but it may be asked to do a little more if Peyton's weapons keep hopping over to the sidelines.

New England Patriots (6-1) - 20% chance
Putting aside jokes about Tom Brady's hair and Bill Belichick's style trends, the Patriots simply know how to win. White America (underrated Eminem song) can't help but pull for the likes of Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead. After the Browns game this weekend, the Patriots will figure out just how good they are with a trip to Pittsburgh and a rematch with the Colts in Foxboro (which somehow is not a primetime game). I know I'm a month late on this, but Brandon Tate could be the key to the Patriots' success, since Deion Branch has looked older than Mick Jagger in his last couple games.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) - 20% chance
The Steelers are likely the most balanced team in the NFL. Big Ben has the receivers to carve up a defense, and Rashard Mendenhall emerged as the real deal this year. Since James Harrison isn't retiring any time soon and Troy Polamalu is still the best defensive player in the league, Pittsburgh makes a solid case for a Super Bowl run once again. Queue everyone's favorite playoff sports question. Does experience always trump old age come playoff time? The Steelers can't afford any key guys to go down with injuries if they want to bring home another ring for the Rooneys.

New York Jets (5-2) - 20% chance
The Jets defense is good. Really good. Mark Sanchez...not so much. Rex Ryan (and his 582-pound ego) put the weight of New York City on Sanchez's shoulders this offseason by naming the Jets the Super Bowl favorites. Can the Jets still win if Marky Mark's Funky Bunch (Shonn Greene and LT) don't control the game? The Green Bay Packers may have laid the blueprint for how to beat Fireman Ed & Co. this year.

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) - 10% chance
Over the summer, NFL gurus across the country were pledging their undying loyalty to Joe Flacco. While Flacco and Anquan Boldin were quick to develop some chemistry, whether or not the Delaware Blue Hen can lead the Ravens to the big game remains to be seen (my money's on no). But Ed Reed improves a secondary in need of an upgrade, and Ray Lewis is still the last man I'd want to bump into in a dark alley. If nothing else, the Ravens will continue to win the award for "Scariest Team to Look Across the Sideline At."

Tennessee Titans (5-3) - 4% chance
Fear the Gold Grill. Whether it's Kerry Collins or Vince Young under center, Chris Johnson gives the Titans a shot every Sunday. Unfortunately, the defense is nowhere near what it used to be and Tennessee's other offensive options are limited at best. But if Lil Wayne can still put out CDs while in jail, why can't Chris Johnson put the Titans in the Super Bowl?

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) - 1% chance
Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs. Aubrey Huff and Edgar Renteria led the San Francisco Giants to a World Series title, so I see no reason why Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones can't do the same for the Chiefs. With nine games left, Kansas City only plays one legitimate contender (Tennessee at home in Week 16). While I realize how crazy it sounds, Kansas City has a chance for a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. My Crazy Theory: The rest of the AFC beats each other up as the Chiefs get the top spot in the AFC at 12-4. Call me crazy, but having the AFC title go through Arrowhead Stadium would make things awfully interesting in late January.


The eyes are the groin of the head.