Tom, Tim, Tony &...Tarvaris? Shaking Up the NFL

Yet again, the NFL delivered another weekend full of upsets (they're just getting predictable now, Baltimore) and late-game finishes that are sure to have repercussions by the end of the season.

A few weeks ago I made some bold mid-season predictions as to who would make the playoffs and ultimately win the whole thing (surprise, the Packers are still the favorite). And while my projections were about as reliable as calling up Miss Cleo to find out if your girl is cheating, I figured I'd take another go at it, so HERE are the updated standings with the playoff teams listed below.

     NFC                                                            
1. GREEN BAY PACKERS                      
2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS                  
3. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS                    
4. DALLAS COWBOYS                          
5. CHICAGO BEARS
6. ATLANTA FALCONS

AFC
1. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
3. HOUSTON TEXANS
4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS
6. NEW YORK JETS

Only one thing changed in the NFC. Did anyone really expect this from the Chicago Bears at the beginning of the season? Well, as I begrudgingly shake my head in disbelief, I moved the Bears into the Lions' wild-card spot after Chicago literally man-handled Detroit on Sunday.

The AFC is a whole different story though. While the potential playoff teams didn't change, the seeding and future schedule importance certainly did. The Steelers and Patriots should hold off the Ravens and Jets for their respective divisions, but the much more intriguing races are in the West and South. Texans fans finally had a reason to believe this was their year - until Matt Schaub's season-ending, foot injury left them naked on their way to the dance (as did the revival of Chris Johnson in Tennessee). The same goes for the Chargers after the injuries moved from their skill guys to their linemen in their loss to the Raiders Thursday night. Both these races could come down to Week 17 showdowns with the Titans traveling to Houston and Oakland hosting the Chargers.

(I'd cast Jensen Ackles to play the up-and-coming Texans to take down CJ2K and the Titans, obviously portrayed by Samuel L. Jackson. For the Chargers, I'd have to go with Bruce Willis knocking out Russell Crowe, the perfect choice for the Raiders, in what will surely be the dirtiest fight of the year. Die Hard vs. Gladiator. Win-win. Alright, I'm done.)

Unfortunately, we still have a little while until the playoffs get here so I suppose we can talk about what went down this weekend. As usual, the division games take top billing.

The real contenders emerged this weekend
In the NFC, the Packers beating up on a weak Minnesota team at home isn't news. However, the Bears showing the Lions how real football is played may have torn the page (corny near-Bob Seger reference anyone?) on Detroit's sports resurrection.

For the South contenders, Mike Smith clearly had all the faith in his offense to gain an inch and none in his defense to stop Drew Brees from gaining 30 yards. While I can't say I agree with Smith's decision, his logic makes a lot of sense given his opponent and I don't see Atlanta quitting on him after a tough loss.

On Thursday night, the AFC West took on a whole new dynamic. Carson Palmer and Michael Bush led the way as the Raiders controlled San Diego throughout to take the division lead. These two teams will likely battle each other until the final week of the season (unless Tim Tebow and his newly unstoppable Broncos have anything to say about it).

Bengals' fans should hold their heads high. Andy Dalton made the late mistake that's expected (and forgivable) for a rookie quarterback in his first start against the Steelers. But given that A.J. Green was hurt for most of the game and Cedric Benson was his usual inept self on the ground, the fiery quarterback should keep the faith (points for a ginger joke and a Billy Joel song).

The showdown of the weekend had to belong to the AFC East. Brady and Belichick reminded everyone why they have three Super Bowl rings and Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan have yet to win one together. The Patriots offense never had problems moving the ball as Brady stuck with his short throws, but his receivers (namely tight end Rob Gronkowski) did a superb job of running after the catch against a normally sure-tackling Jets defense. Meanwhile, Marky Mark continued to disappoint Jets fans.


Playoff hopefuls struggle on the road (except in the AFC South)
After an eye-opening loss at home to the Jets last weekend, the Bills looked to rebound in Dallas - except Tony Romo made Buffalo look like the Bills from three years ago. Laurent Robinson did his best Miles Austin impersonation and DeMarco Murray continued to roll as the Cowboys looked fantastic while the Bills officially ran out of gas after a rampant start to the season. As much as I hate the Cowboys, only Jerry Jones can ruin their playoff chances right now. If Jerry forces Jason Garrett to play Felix Jones over DeMarco Murray when Felix gets healthy, we'll be reminded who really coaches the Cowboys.

Meanwhile, the current NFC-East leader came up just short as the Giants fell to the 49ers in San Francisco. Despite an early injury sidelining Frank Gore for nearly the entire game and Alex Smith being Alex Smith, the Niners defense got their stops and forced an oh-too-typical late Eli turnover. Patrick Willis has to be the non-quarterback MVP at this point in the season (slightly ahead of Matt Forte). San Fran gets their next test Thanksgiving night when they travel to Baltimore. That means Patrick Willis vs. Ray Lewis. Dear NFL Network, please split screen the entire game - one for the actual play and the other for Willis/Lewis.

Speaking of the Ravens, I think Ray Rice is still rummaging for scraps in a dumpster somewhere in a Seattle fish market. Five carries? Five carries, Cam Cameron? Your first five plays should be handing the ball to Ray Rice! Now that I got that off my chest, Baltimore's defense deserves some blame as well. The D held after some costly turnovers, but the Seahawks ran the final six minutes off the clock since the Ravens couldn't get a stop. And, right on cue, Baltimore welcomes Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals to town in a "winner is in the driver's seat for a playoff spot" divisional clash.

But in the AFC South, Houston took advantage of the reeling Buccaneers in Tampa Bay to improve to 7-3 - a win the Texans desperately needed with Schaub done. As Chris Johnson and the Titans regained their mojo in Carolina, Tennessee reminded the Texans they haven't won the division quite yet. The Texans' bye week couldn't come at a better time as Houston prepares to rush Andre Johnson back to help Matt Leinart learn his new, three-play offense - handoff to Arian Foster left, handoff to Arian Foster right, throw it deep to Andre Johnson (only if Houston's losing, of course). Leinart nearly pulled a Yoko a few seasons ago in Arizona before Kurt Warner saved the day. Let's hope Houston isn't his new demolition ground.




Toby is in HR, which technically means he works for corporate, so he's really not a part of our family. Also, he's divorced so he's really not a part of his family.

10 Things We Learned This NFL Weekend

Every week, we look back at the NFL games and are left scratching our heads at something. Like a Patrick Peterson 99-yard punt return for a touchdown and the Dolphins became an offensive juggernaut. Whether you're an excited Ravens fan or a disappointed Eagles fan, we should all remember that Week 9 just ended and nearly every team has half their schedule still remaining. But that being said, here's what to take away from NFL Week 9.


1. Joe Flacco and the Ravens finally figured out the Steelers defense.
After engineering a nice comeback win the previous weekend against the Cardinals, Flacco and the offense rode that momentum to an impressive win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The divisional and playoff implications are obvious, but more importantly, has Joe Flacco found his confidence?

I'll be the first to admit I wasn't expecting a 92-yard, game-winning drive from Flacco in Pittsburgh. But even after Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin both developed a case of the "Roy Williams" during the final drive, Flacco remained calm and poised, ultimately delivering a perfect ball to Smith for the touchdown.

Going forward, the confidence boost should do wonders in making Flacco a more consistent week-to-week quarterback (which is what the Ravens are going to need if they hope to hold on to their division lead). As huge as the win against the Steelers was for Baltimore, Flacco and the Ravens can't afford a letdown on the road as they travel to noisy Qwest Field in Seattle (far from an easy place to win). Another post-Steelers egg (see Week 2 at Tennessee) would nullify a great start to 2011 for the Ravens.

2. Maybe it's time to worry for Patriots fans.

A lot happened in Week 9 I didn't expect, but nothing was more confusing than the Giants' win in New England. Just like "Now That's What I Call Music!" shouldn't still be selling millions of copies (I checked, Now has four of the top 30 selling albums this year. Ridiculous.), Eli Manning shouldn't beat Tom Brady in Gillette Stadium.

After Eli threw that late, red-zone interception, there's no way I was the only person thinking, "Typical Eli and the Giants with their mid-season collapse." But watching Manning lead his late comeback made me reconsider both the Giants and the Patriots.

I still think the Cowboys will edge out the Giants for the NFC East crown, but New York will not roll over for Dallas. As for the Patriots, they have issues on both sides of the ball. New England's secondary is more fluid than the Republican presidential candidate. On offense, a lack of a deep threat is congesting the Patriots' running and short-passing game. Belichick will right the ship, but if New England loses to the Jets this Sunday night, the Patriots could very likely find themselves fighting for a wild-card spot against the Bills on New Year's Day.

Random side note. New Year's Day is supposed to be about college football and nursing a hangover, not the NFL. Having it fall on a Sunday both takes away an extra day to watch football and an extra day for everyone's liver to recover. Lame on both counts.

3. The Eagles are going to need a minor miracle to make the playoffs.
After a dominant performance versus the Cowboys following a bye week, the Eagles appeared to be headed in the right direction. Then Philadelphia blew another fourth-quarter lead to fall three games behind the surging Giants.

While I don't think the Eagles are officially out of the playoff race, they are out of the wild-card race. Too many tiebreakers to overcome and too many teams need to fall apart there.

On the other hand, a long shot still is possible within the division - it just got that much harder Monday night. Given the Giants' remaining schedule and the Cowboys' injury concerns, both teams could start to stumble in the coming weeks. If the Eagles have any chance whatsoever, they will have to win seven of eight and beat both the Giants and the Cowboys on the road - far from an easy task.

4. San Diego could win the AFC West with a 9-7 record this season.
While the AFC West isn't quite as bad as last year's NFC West, it's not that much better either. For anyone who read my fantasy football articles before the season started, you know how much I thought of Philip Rivers (who is now on pace for something close to 73 interceptions. Sorry to everyone who drafted him in your league). But somehow the Chargers once again survived their traditional early-season struggles to remain tied for first in the division at 4-4.

After the Raiders and Chiefs both suffered disheartening losses at home, San Diego is set to recapture the division. The Chargers showed resilience against the Packers. They've been here before, and San Diego knows what it takes to win when it counts.

The Chargers don't have many easy games left on the schedule (Oakland twice, at Chicago, Denver, at Jacksonville, Buffalo, Baltimore, at Detroit). But in a division where even Tim Tebow and the Broncos have a chance to win, my money's on Rivers and the Chargers. I'd say it's about as safe a bet as Tom Cruise continuing to make Mission Impossible movies no one cares about. Just look at that picture. Yummy.

5. While on the AFC West, the Colts owe the Chiefs a Thank You card.
We should've known the hangover from last Monday night's win over the Chargers would lead to a nosedive for the Chiefs. Kansas City didn't just lose to the Dolphins. The Chiefs were thoroughly dominated by...(wait for it)...Matt Moore and Reggie Bush. Yikes!

The Dolphins are playing more inspired every week, while the Colts sunk to a new low as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones torched Indianapolis at home. The Colts have home games remaining against the Jaguars, Panthers and Titans, but it's looking more and more like Indianapolis will be Andrew Luck's new home unless Peyton Manning makes a rapid recovery.

6. The AFC East race got a little clearer with a three-way tie.
We've already touched on the Patriots loss, but the Jets went into Buffalo and earned an impressive victory over the Bills. With all three teams at 5-3 and tiebreakers split among all of them, every team has something to prove heading into the stretch run.

After Buffalo warmed everyone's hearts to start the season, the Bills have lost two of their last three and are backpedaling at the wrong time. The Buffalo defense has been below average all season, but Ryan Fitzpatrick's recent slump needs to end now. The Bills get a rematch with the Jets in a couple weeks, in what may be a must-win game for Buffalo.

As for New York and New England, their game Sunday night may come close to giving us a division winner in early November. Both teams have similarly easy remaining schedules (both play the Bills at home and the Eagles as their toughest games). If the Patriots find a way to rebound from their two-game losing streak and stop the Jets in New York, a season-sweep will give New England a two-game stranglehold on the Jets and the division.

7. Andy Dalton and the Bengals remain red hot (couldn't resist).

You had a better chance of earning a date with Olivia Wilde than predicting this type of start for the Bengals. Granted, the Bengals schedule has worked in their favor, but 6-2 is still tied for the best record in the AFC. If the Cincinnati defense stays solid, it's not impossible to see the Bengals in the playoff race come Week 17 as they take on the Ravens at home.

Bear with me.

Four of the eight remaining games for the Bengals are against the Steelers and Ravens, but let's say Cincy steals just one (perhaps in that last week at home  when the Ravens may have nothing to play for). That puts the Bengals at 7-5. If Cincinnati can manage to win their other four games (Cleveland, Houston, at St. Louis, and Arizona), could the Bengals really sneak into the playoffs at 11-5? Beating the Texans will be tough, but let's not count out the red-headed wonder and A.J. Green just yet.

8. The Buccaneers have taken a big step backward from last season.
While losing in New Orleans is nothing to get too worried about, it's more the way Tampa Bay played that's concerning. Coming into the season, the Buccaneers thought they had the young pieces in place at the skill positions to challenge for the NFC South title for years to come. But Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams have all been huge disappointments in 2011.

Freeman has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, Blount is coming back from a knee injury that caused him to miss two games and Williams hasn't caught a touchdown since Week 1. After defensive stud Gerald McCoy's season ended Sunday, the defense will continue to give up too many points for Tampa to keep pace. By the end of the season, the Buccaneers will be lucky to finish at .500.

9. 2010 Sam Bradford is ancient history.
This is a shame. When Bradford came into the draft, everyone's biggest concern was his ability to stay healthy. And although he missed a few games this season with ankle issues, he's been able to survive an atrocious offensive line for the past year and a half. Unfortunately, after Bradford's superb rookie campaign, the sophomore slump has crippled Bradford and the Rams this season.

Arizona gave Bradford every opportunity to steal a win on the road, and although he finished with 23 completions, Bradford only recorded 255 yards and no touchdowns (again showcasing his struggles to stretch the field this season). After completing 60 percent of his passes while throwing for more than 3,500 yards in 2010, Bradford has as many picks as touchdowns and a completion percentage under 55 this season. Hopefully Brandon Lloyd helps the Rams offense turn things around before Bradford becomes a question mark heading into 2012. No one wants to declare Bradford a one-hit wonder (leaving him with the likes of Sir Mix-a-Lot and Chumbawamba).

10. The Packers are going to make Thanksgiving dinner obsolete.
After holding off a late Chargers comeback in San Diego, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers improved to 8-0. With only home games against the Vikings and the Buccaneers standing between Green Bay and Thanksgiving, Mike McCarthy & Co. are hardly shaking in their boots.

As for the Lions, the schedule is a little less friendly before Turkey Day. Jim Schwartz's bunch has a tough test in Chicago before returning home to battle with Cam Newton and the Panthers. Even if the Lions are 7-3 heading into an undefeated showdown with the Lambeau Leapers, it'll still be the first meaningful Thanksgiving game in Detroit in my lifetime.



I've decided to shun Andy Bernard for the next three years. It's an Amish technique. It's like slapping someone with silence. I was shunned from the age of four until my sixth birthday for not saving the excess oil from a can of tuna.

How the NFL Season is Going to End

With the NFL hitting its midway point, I haven't been able to turn on a sports channel or scroll through a sports site without inevitably being subjected to some bland midseason awards segment. So as I slowly sank into my all-too-comfortable chair, I was gifted with another great idea to kill time with some football nerdiness.

Since people exhausted most of the reasons why Aaron Rodgers is going to win the MVP or how the Steelers and 49ers are playing so well right, I figured I'd tell you how the NFL season would end.

So I went through the remaining games on the schedule and spent a couple minutes determining the outcome of each one (See, this is the great thing about being unemployed. Clearly, a real job would keep me from all this insomnia-induced fun. Pretty much, I feel like Edward Norton pre-Tyler Durden right now).

Anyway, I'll give a quick recap of how I think the regular season will play out, but if you want to check out the final standings, click here (I know it doesn't look like a hyperlink because Blogger sucks, but "click here" is actually a link).

Here are a few things I found interesting when I looked back:

1. I somehow have the Jets winning their next nine games to finish 13-3, win the division ahead of the Patriots and earn a bye. I don't know why. I hate the Jets. The Jets are the Kim Kardashians of the NFL. I just think they'll beat the Patriots, Eagles and the Bills twice (their only difficult games remaining).

2. The Eagles will miss the playoffs because of their early-season losses. This is actually really interesting if you get into the tiebreakers. The Cowboys and Eagles will both finish 10-6 to tie for first in the division. Since the Cowboys will beat the Eagles to even the head-to-head series, the tiebreaker goes to division games (where I also think they'll be tied thanks to splitting with the Giants and sweeping the Redskins). Next up on the division tiebreaker list: common games, which means their games against the NFC West and AFC East. This is where the Cowboys beating the 49ers and the Eagles blowing a 20-point lead against them will cost Philadelphia (also the Eagles already lost to the Bills and the Cowboys still get to play Buffalo in Dallas).

As if that wasn't hard enough for my Philly heart to take, the Falcons, who also will finish 10-6, earn the final wild-card spot ahead of the Eagles thanks to that Week 2 collapse after Michael Vick left with a concussion. If this actually happens, it'll replace the end of Old Yeller as the saddest moment in the "It's not that serious, but I still can't help but get emotional" section of my life. I'm fairly confident Old Yeller is the guy version of The Notebook.

3. The Ravens could yet again have to go through Pittsburgh if they fail to top the Steelers for the division title. Joe Flacco hasn't gotten any better, so the Ravens best hope relies on the Steelers' defense continuing to lose its main guys to injuries (looks like Woodley and Harrison might not play this week). If the Ravens have any chance at making a run at the Super Bowl, winning the division is a must.

4. Thanks to an unforgivably horrendous division, the 49ers appear to be a near-lock for the second bye in the NFC. Unfortunately for San Francisco, the Niners don't match up well with a lot of their potential opponents (the Saints, Cowboys, and Lions all excel at throwing the ball). I don't want to compare the 49ers to last year's Chiefs, but a similar playoff outcome appears likely.

5. After all of the futility in the NFL's basement, the winner of the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes could come down to a coin flip (cue an exorbitant amount of corny Luck headlines). If the Dolphins and Colts both finish at 1-15, their fate could be determined by a simple "heads or tails" call. How fitting.

6. If the playoffs actually turn out this way, we'll be in for a fantastic wild-card weekend. Without further ado, here's the playoff breakdown.


WILD CARD

(3) Saints 27, (6) Falcons 24 - Whenever two division rivals meet in the playoffs, it's almost always a must-see game. Offensively, both teams are great at what the other team struggles to stop (the Falcons can't stop the pass and the Saints can't stop the run). But playing at home gives the Saints a notable advantage, and unless Drew Brees throws one-too-many interceptions, New Orleans marches on.

(5) Lions 24, (4) Cowboys 21 - A rematch from an early-season game where the Cowboys jumped out to a quick lead at home only to watch the Calvin Johnson Show snatch a win for Detroit. The sequel should be even better than the original (I'm thinking Superman 2 besting the first simply because the action and villains are too good. And yes, Dallas will definitely be considered the villains in this game).

Quick side note. The NFL should really think about adopting the NBA's playoff standard for home-field advantage. As exciting as last season's Seahawks upset of the Saints was, the team with the better record deserves to play at home.

(3) Chargers 20, (6) Ravens 17 - This is the worst possible draw for Baltimore. The Chargers defense is good at stopping the run and creating turnovers. San Diego doesn't run the ball (the Ravens' biggest strength is their run defense), and I'm still not sold on the Baltimore secondary (outside of Ed Reed, of course). The only way I see the Ravens winning this game is if Ed Reed returns an interception for a touchdown.

Another quick side note. This would be a rematch of the Week 15 Sunday Night game. With only three weeks in between games, it's safe to say not much would change. I'd give a big advantage to Baltimore's coaching staff over San Diego's when it comes to making the right adjustments (basically because Norv Turner lives to fail), so there's your hope Ravens fans.

(5) Patriots 31, (4) Texans 21 - Easily the best scenario for the Patriots if they somehow don't win the division. Wade Phillips made great improvements to the Texans defense, but Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. Also, as bad as New England's passing defense has been so far, I don't trust Matt Schaub. Bill Belichick will take away Andre Johnson and the Patriots will advance.


DIVISIONAL

(1) Packers 23, (5) Lions 21 - Another great divisional showdown. The Lions match up very well against the Packers. Detroit arguably has the best pass rush in the league and Matt Stafford could pick apart Green Bay's secondary. The Packers will want to see the Lions about as badly as Shakira wants to see Gerard Pique, but Aaron Rodgers and his championship belt move on. The bigger concern: how do you cheat on Shakira? Seriously?

(3) Saints 19, (2) 49ers 13 - Not this year for the Niners. Frank Gore will have a great game. Drew Brees will have a better one. I would be surprised if Brees didn't throw the ball 55 times in this game given the brick wall Patrick Willis and San Francisco's rushing defense has created. But Alex Smith still plays for the 49ers so I'm betting heavily on a costly late-game interception to end San Fran's storybook season.

(5) Patriots 23, (1) Steelers 20 - This could arguably be the greatest second-round game of all time. I hate exaggeration and hyperbole, but it really doesn't get any better than this in the divisional round (which also makes this the hardest game of the bunch to call). The Steelers won the midseason game. The Patriots have Tom Brady. Both teams are overflowing with playoff experience. In the end, Pittsburgh keeps Brady and Co. in check for most of the game, but a last-minute, game-winning touchdown to The Great White Hope (aka Wes Welker) sends New England on to the next round.

(3) Chargers 16, (2) Jets 10 - Another intriguing rematch from the middle of the season. Remember when I said I hate the Jets? Here's my redemption for giving them a bye. New York's D will frustrate Philip Rivers all day, but Mark Sanchez will do his best to keep his team from fulfilling Rex Ryan's promise. And then Jets fans will go all Gangs of New York on Sanchez as his NFL career goes the way of Jake Delhomme.


CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

(1) Packers 34, (3) Saints 30 - By now, the opening game of the season seems like a distant memory, but it sure was one hell of a game. Not much defense was played, and not much will be played here again. But Charles Woodson and the Packers defense is just good enough to hold the Saints to a couple field goals as Green Bay returns to the Super Bowl.

(5) Patriots 30, (3) Chargers 24 - Another shootout. Tom Brady is better than Philip Rivers. More importantly, Bill Belichick is substantially better than Norv Turner. I'd say it's like comparing Emma Watson to Rosie O'Donnell. It's just not fair. New England outscores San Diego, rumors swirl about Turner getting fired and the Patriots return to the big game.


SUPER BOWL

Packers 31, Patriots 27 - Would be a phenomenal Super Bowl for every imaginable reason. New dynasty versus old dynasty. The likable Aaron Rodgers against the douche bag Tom Brady. But the most intriguing match-up? Charles Woodson on Wes Welker. The best slot cover guy in the NFL against the best slot receiver. Kanye versus Taylor Swift. Jimmy Fallon versus being funny. NBA owners versus the players. The analogies could go on for days (Christian Bale versus anger management?).

Anyway, the Packers will win back-to-back titles as Vince Lombardi lights up a cigar from the grave. It looks like we're headed for another fantastic finish to the season. So pull up a chair, order some pizza and wings (and NFL Red Zone if you haven't already), forget that you have work to get done and enjoy it before Mel Kiper Jr. returns.



I'm always thinking one step ahead. Like a carpenter...who builds stairs.