December Dwindles Down NFL Elite

With only four weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, it's time for a few last-gasp efforts from some struggling pre-season favorites (don't look away Norv Turner, we're talking to you), and also to see if some of the newcomers are for real.

So, four games left and still 22 teams within two games of a playoff spot. Before you begin your rant, no, I don't really think all of these teams have a legitimate shot at the postseason (sorry, Kansas City). But, for argument's sake, I figured I'd take a look at the 22 remaining contenders - in alphabetical order - heading into the final quarter of the season.

Here we go...

Arizona Cardinals (5-7): After losing six straight, the Cardinals have won four of their last five with their only loss coming at San Francisco. Granted, Arizona beat the Rams twice to earn half those wins, but the fact that the Cardinals beat the Eagles and Cowboys with John Skelton and Kevin Kolb at quarterback makes about as much sense as San Diego St. being a member of the Big East Conference.

Atlanta Falcons (7-5): The Falcons missed a golden opportunity to take advantage of T.J. Yates' debut in Houston. Atlanta is the Kevin Spacey of the NFL. You don't expect much, but they never disappoint you either. (For anyone who hasn't seen Spacey in The Usual Suspects, stop reading now, find it online and watch it. You won't be disappointed). But with the Bears' injuries, the Lions' antics and the Falcons' easy remaining schedule, Atlanta should be a lock for a NFC wild card.

Baltimore Ravens (9-3): I've said it before, but there's no one in the NFL who needs home-field advantage more than Baltimore. They're simply two different teams at home versus on the road. Quick stats to prove my point. At home, the Ravens are 6-0 and outscoring opponents 175-89. On the road? 3-3 and only outscoring opponents 121-97. I could also show you the importance of Cam Cameron continuing to give Ray Rice the ball, but I'm done boring you with stats. The Ravens will have to prove they can perform on the road (at San Diego and Cincinnati) if they want to play at home in January.

Buffalo Bills (5-7): Poor Buffalo. It's nearly impossible not to root for these guys, but they couldn't quite bring the wagons full circle this season. Too many big injuries. The Bills head out to San Diego on a five-game losing streak with the defense showing no signs of being able to stop Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense. A loss in California and Buffalo can be written off for good. Maybe next year, Bills fans.

Chicago Bears (7-5): I had made a hobby of rooting against Jay Cutler. It was nothing against the Bears, but Cutler was nearing John Mayer territory with his douchebaggery. But this year, Cutler changed my mind. He whined a little less, and played well a little more. And with how awful his offensive line began the season, it was hard not to feel for the guy. Now, Cutler and Matt Forte are stuck on the sideline (with real injuries this time), and Caleb Hanie and Marion Barber are running the show. Losing at home to the Chiefs on a halftime-Hail Mary says it all. Chicago needs some divine inspiration if they hope to return to the playoffs this season.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-5): Still not giving up on Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. They've come back to Earth, but they've also lost the games we expected them to lose. The big test comes this Sunday. Cincinnati gets the Texans at home - still stuck with T.J. Yates and likely without Andre Johnson. Houston wins with Arian Foster and defense, but if the Bengals can contain Foster and Dalton doesn't turn the ball over, the Bengals could find themselves headed for a Week 17 showdown with the Ravens to earn the final wild-card spot.

Dallas Cowboys (7-5): Can mismanaging 20 seconds really change your entire season? Close, but it definitely gets people talking. The Cowboys' fate simply depends on how they play in their two games against the Giants. With a game advantage and holding the tiebreaker, Dallas likely only needs a split with New York to capture the NFC East.

Denver Broncos (7-5): After every football analyst spent the last month trying to figure out how the Broncos were winning, Denver finds themselves atop the AFC West. Take a bow, Denver defense, who prior to their trip to Minnesota had held their last four opponents to 15 points a game. And now it's your turn, Timmy, who proved he can throw the ball in beating the Vikings. The schedule certainly favors the Broncos the rest of the way. The only problem with finishing 10-6 and winning the AFC West? Hosting either the Ravens or the Steelers in the playoffs.

Detroit Lions (7-5): Have we found the new villains of the NFL? Given their talent, it was painful to watch Detroit throw that game away in New Orleans. Matthew Stafford looked healthy again, but the Lions defense has allowed at least 27 points in their last four games (read: that's very bad). Detroit has to win at home versus the Vikings before they begin a harsh three-game stretch to end the season (at Oakland, home for San Diego, at Green Bay). The Packers' record going into the final week of the regular season (and who they decide to play), could determine whether or not the Lions make the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers (12-0): The Giants gave the Packers their first game that came down to the very end since Week 1, and Aaron Rodgers just laughed. Watching Rodgers throw a perfect 30-yard, back-shoulder pass to Jordy Nelson to ease into field goal range with time to spare should've taken any hope away from the other 31 teams. It's just not fair. Not even The Rock could take that championship belt from Aaron Rodgers right now.

Houston Texans (9-3): The Texans carry a six-game winning streak into Cincinnati this weekend. And even if they lose, Houston comes back to games with the Panthers and the Colts. The AFC South is likely theirs, and if T.J. Yates can put it together in four weeks, the Texans could go a long way behind that defense. Houston hasn't allowed an opponent to score more than 14 points since Week 6 (read: that's very good).

Kansas City Chiefs (5-7): Now that their prayer has been answered, it's time for the Chiefs to return to reality. An injured Kyle Orton means Tyler Palko is still their quarterback. Kansas City's easiest remaining game? Home for the Raiders. Chiefs fans might want to stay home for that one. A 5-11 finish appears probable.

New England Patriots (9-3): Just another season for the Patriots. New England has to keep winning though if they want to at least earn a first-round bye. With the Ravens, Steelers and Texans all at 9-3 as well, Bill Belichick would hate to have to play the Jets again just because his team slacked off at home against the Dolphins. The real intrigue left in the Patriots remaining regular season: a Week 15 trip to Denver for Tom Brady vs. Tim Tebow.

New Orleans Saints (9-3): The Saints are easily the Packers' biggest challengers in the NFC. As long as Drew Brees stays healthy, New Orleans will win another NFC South crown. The Saints' future could be determined by how many turnovers its defense forces in the playoffs. (And the same goes for the Packers and Patriots. It's a little scary how similar those three teams are. They're like the Baldwin brothers...except they don't get kicked off planes).

New York Giants (6-6): So let me get this straight. The Giants have lost four straight, but somehow they're the ones riding momentum into the opening clash with the Cowboys. Ahmad Bradshaw returning should make New York a little less one dimensional on offense (and maybe cut down on a costly Eli turnover or two), but the main problem is still with the defense. The Giants' NFC-East hopes rely on Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora putting pressure on Tony Romo.

New York Jets (7-5): Welcome back, Shonn Greene. His return was much needed, because the Jets defense has lost a step. They're like an actor who can no longer pull off all their old, cool stunts so they end up having to CGI every action scene. Yes, that makes the New York offense the CGI. And like CGI, it may not always look smooth, but it gets the job done if used properly. As long as Mark Sanchez doesn't have to win the game, the Jets always have a chance. If they can take down their East Rutherford partner, the Jets will likely find themselves in the postseason yet again.

Oakland Raiders (7-5): It's amazing how quickly Oakland went from Super Bowl contenders to fighting for a division with the Broncos. Apparently, that's what playing the Dolphins does to a team these days. The Raiders need a healthy Darren McFadden starting this week if they're going to outscore their opponents (Packers, Lions, Chargers) down the stretch.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3): Let's start with what we know. The Steelers are 9-3. Three of their next four games are against the Browns and Rams. The Steelers will win at least 12 games this season. The real game in the middle of the cupcakes? A trip to San Francisco. It's crazy to think Pittsburgh could go 13-3 and still be stuck with a wild-card spot (if the Ravens don't lose). However, if there's any team with enough playoff experience to win three on the road in the playoffs (like they did six years ago), it's the Steelers.

San Diego Chargers (5-7): It's gonna take more than a blowout win over a helpless Jaguars team to convince anyone the Chargers have it in them to win out and make the AFC West a three-team race. But if Rivers really has solved his turnover problem, San Diego can outscore anyone. Unfortunately, it's likely too little, too late for a team with pre-season Super Bowl expectations. It's like M. Night Shyamalan putting out a really cool trailer, convincing you this script doesn't have 73 unnecessary plot twists, and then wasting nearly three hours of your life you will never get back.

San Francisco 49ers (10-2): Still not convinced. The 49ers' last four games can convince me though. San Fran plays the Steelers at home and goes on the road to their three NFC-West rivals. If the 49ers win three of the four, that'll be enough to lock up a first-round bye, and more importantly, likely avoid having to travel to New Orleans if they play the Saints.

Seattle Seahawks (5-7): Let me preface what I'm about to say with this: Tarvaris Jackson is a horrendous quarterback, who lost his best receiver, and is fully capable of losing every game for the Seahawks. Now that that's out of the way, I believe Seattle could run the table and challenge for the last wild-card spot in the NFC. Please, stop laughing at me for a second to hear me out. The Seahawks' next two games are at home for the Rams and at Chicago to play a Bears team that just scored three points at home against the Chiefs. Seattle's next one is the game that matters most - a home date with the 49ers. Neither team should be able to run the ball so whoever turns the ball over least will probably win. It's a coin flip between Jackson and Alex Smith so I'll take the Seahawks at Qwest Field. Seattle finishes with a trip to Arizona, but that's not an impossible slate to prevent Marshawn Lynch from a little deja vu with the Saints in the first round.

Tennessee Titans (7-5): The wounds are still raw, Chris Johnson, so please tread lightly on every fantasy football team you destroyed this season. Fortunately for the Titans, CJ2K finally found his stride. Although not many people expect the Titans to upset the Saints this week, their next three games are very winnable. The Colts and Jaguars will both be drafting in the top five, and Houston will likely be locked into the No. 3 seed heading into Tennessee's visit come Week 17. Three straight to end the season will put the Titans right there with the Bengals and Jets in the race for that final AFC wild-card spot.




I'm not superstitious. I'm only a little stitious.

Tom, Tim, Tony &...Tarvaris? Shaking Up the NFL

Yet again, the NFL delivered another weekend full of upsets (they're just getting predictable now, Baltimore) and late-game finishes that are sure to have repercussions by the end of the season.

A few weeks ago I made some bold mid-season predictions as to who would make the playoffs and ultimately win the whole thing (surprise, the Packers are still the favorite). And while my projections were about as reliable as calling up Miss Cleo to find out if your girl is cheating, I figured I'd take another go at it, so HERE are the updated standings with the playoff teams listed below.

     NFC                                                            
1. GREEN BAY PACKERS                      
2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS                  
3. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS                    
4. DALLAS COWBOYS                          
5. CHICAGO BEARS
6. ATLANTA FALCONS

AFC
1. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
3. HOUSTON TEXANS
4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS
6. NEW YORK JETS

Only one thing changed in the NFC. Did anyone really expect this from the Chicago Bears at the beginning of the season? Well, as I begrudgingly shake my head in disbelief, I moved the Bears into the Lions' wild-card spot after Chicago literally man-handled Detroit on Sunday.

The AFC is a whole different story though. While the potential playoff teams didn't change, the seeding and future schedule importance certainly did. The Steelers and Patriots should hold off the Ravens and Jets for their respective divisions, but the much more intriguing races are in the West and South. Texans fans finally had a reason to believe this was their year - until Matt Schaub's season-ending, foot injury left them naked on their way to the dance (as did the revival of Chris Johnson in Tennessee). The same goes for the Chargers after the injuries moved from their skill guys to their linemen in their loss to the Raiders Thursday night. Both these races could come down to Week 17 showdowns with the Titans traveling to Houston and Oakland hosting the Chargers.

(I'd cast Jensen Ackles to play the up-and-coming Texans to take down CJ2K and the Titans, obviously portrayed by Samuel L. Jackson. For the Chargers, I'd have to go with Bruce Willis knocking out Russell Crowe, the perfect choice for the Raiders, in what will surely be the dirtiest fight of the year. Die Hard vs. Gladiator. Win-win. Alright, I'm done.)

Unfortunately, we still have a little while until the playoffs get here so I suppose we can talk about what went down this weekend. As usual, the division games take top billing.

The real contenders emerged this weekend
In the NFC, the Packers beating up on a weak Minnesota team at home isn't news. However, the Bears showing the Lions how real football is played may have torn the page (corny near-Bob Seger reference anyone?) on Detroit's sports resurrection.

For the South contenders, Mike Smith clearly had all the faith in his offense to gain an inch and none in his defense to stop Drew Brees from gaining 30 yards. While I can't say I agree with Smith's decision, his logic makes a lot of sense given his opponent and I don't see Atlanta quitting on him after a tough loss.

On Thursday night, the AFC West took on a whole new dynamic. Carson Palmer and Michael Bush led the way as the Raiders controlled San Diego throughout to take the division lead. These two teams will likely battle each other until the final week of the season (unless Tim Tebow and his newly unstoppable Broncos have anything to say about it).

Bengals' fans should hold their heads high. Andy Dalton made the late mistake that's expected (and forgivable) for a rookie quarterback in his first start against the Steelers. But given that A.J. Green was hurt for most of the game and Cedric Benson was his usual inept self on the ground, the fiery quarterback should keep the faith (points for a ginger joke and a Billy Joel song).

The showdown of the weekend had to belong to the AFC East. Brady and Belichick reminded everyone why they have three Super Bowl rings and Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan have yet to win one together. The Patriots offense never had problems moving the ball as Brady stuck with his short throws, but his receivers (namely tight end Rob Gronkowski) did a superb job of running after the catch against a normally sure-tackling Jets defense. Meanwhile, Marky Mark continued to disappoint Jets fans.


Playoff hopefuls struggle on the road (except in the AFC South)
After an eye-opening loss at home to the Jets last weekend, the Bills looked to rebound in Dallas - except Tony Romo made Buffalo look like the Bills from three years ago. Laurent Robinson did his best Miles Austin impersonation and DeMarco Murray continued to roll as the Cowboys looked fantastic while the Bills officially ran out of gas after a rampant start to the season. As much as I hate the Cowboys, only Jerry Jones can ruin their playoff chances right now. If Jerry forces Jason Garrett to play Felix Jones over DeMarco Murray when Felix gets healthy, we'll be reminded who really coaches the Cowboys.

Meanwhile, the current NFC-East leader came up just short as the Giants fell to the 49ers in San Francisco. Despite an early injury sidelining Frank Gore for nearly the entire game and Alex Smith being Alex Smith, the Niners defense got their stops and forced an oh-too-typical late Eli turnover. Patrick Willis has to be the non-quarterback MVP at this point in the season (slightly ahead of Matt Forte). San Fran gets their next test Thanksgiving night when they travel to Baltimore. That means Patrick Willis vs. Ray Lewis. Dear NFL Network, please split screen the entire game - one for the actual play and the other for Willis/Lewis.

Speaking of the Ravens, I think Ray Rice is still rummaging for scraps in a dumpster somewhere in a Seattle fish market. Five carries? Five carries, Cam Cameron? Your first five plays should be handing the ball to Ray Rice! Now that I got that off my chest, Baltimore's defense deserves some blame as well. The D held after some costly turnovers, but the Seahawks ran the final six minutes off the clock since the Ravens couldn't get a stop. And, right on cue, Baltimore welcomes Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals to town in a "winner is in the driver's seat for a playoff spot" divisional clash.

But in the AFC South, Houston took advantage of the reeling Buccaneers in Tampa Bay to improve to 7-3 - a win the Texans desperately needed with Schaub done. As Chris Johnson and the Titans regained their mojo in Carolina, Tennessee reminded the Texans they haven't won the division quite yet. The Texans' bye week couldn't come at a better time as Houston prepares to rush Andre Johnson back to help Matt Leinart learn his new, three-play offense - handoff to Arian Foster left, handoff to Arian Foster right, throw it deep to Andre Johnson (only if Houston's losing, of course). Leinart nearly pulled a Yoko a few seasons ago in Arizona before Kurt Warner saved the day. Let's hope Houston isn't his new demolition ground.




Toby is in HR, which technically means he works for corporate, so he's really not a part of our family. Also, he's divorced so he's really not a part of his family.

10 Things We Learned This NFL Weekend

Every week, we look back at the NFL games and are left scratching our heads at something. Like a Patrick Peterson 99-yard punt return for a touchdown and the Dolphins became an offensive juggernaut. Whether you're an excited Ravens fan or a disappointed Eagles fan, we should all remember that Week 9 just ended and nearly every team has half their schedule still remaining. But that being said, here's what to take away from NFL Week 9.


1. Joe Flacco and the Ravens finally figured out the Steelers defense.
After engineering a nice comeback win the previous weekend against the Cardinals, Flacco and the offense rode that momentum to an impressive win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The divisional and playoff implications are obvious, but more importantly, has Joe Flacco found his confidence?

I'll be the first to admit I wasn't expecting a 92-yard, game-winning drive from Flacco in Pittsburgh. But even after Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin both developed a case of the "Roy Williams" during the final drive, Flacco remained calm and poised, ultimately delivering a perfect ball to Smith for the touchdown.

Going forward, the confidence boost should do wonders in making Flacco a more consistent week-to-week quarterback (which is what the Ravens are going to need if they hope to hold on to their division lead). As huge as the win against the Steelers was for Baltimore, Flacco and the Ravens can't afford a letdown on the road as they travel to noisy Qwest Field in Seattle (far from an easy place to win). Another post-Steelers egg (see Week 2 at Tennessee) would nullify a great start to 2011 for the Ravens.

2. Maybe it's time to worry for Patriots fans.

A lot happened in Week 9 I didn't expect, but nothing was more confusing than the Giants' win in New England. Just like "Now That's What I Call Music!" shouldn't still be selling millions of copies (I checked, Now has four of the top 30 selling albums this year. Ridiculous.), Eli Manning shouldn't beat Tom Brady in Gillette Stadium.

After Eli threw that late, red-zone interception, there's no way I was the only person thinking, "Typical Eli and the Giants with their mid-season collapse." But watching Manning lead his late comeback made me reconsider both the Giants and the Patriots.

I still think the Cowboys will edge out the Giants for the NFC East crown, but New York will not roll over for Dallas. As for the Patriots, they have issues on both sides of the ball. New England's secondary is more fluid than the Republican presidential candidate. On offense, a lack of a deep threat is congesting the Patriots' running and short-passing game. Belichick will right the ship, but if New England loses to the Jets this Sunday night, the Patriots could very likely find themselves fighting for a wild-card spot against the Bills on New Year's Day.

Random side note. New Year's Day is supposed to be about college football and nursing a hangover, not the NFL. Having it fall on a Sunday both takes away an extra day to watch football and an extra day for everyone's liver to recover. Lame on both counts.

3. The Eagles are going to need a minor miracle to make the playoffs.
After a dominant performance versus the Cowboys following a bye week, the Eagles appeared to be headed in the right direction. Then Philadelphia blew another fourth-quarter lead to fall three games behind the surging Giants.

While I don't think the Eagles are officially out of the playoff race, they are out of the wild-card race. Too many tiebreakers to overcome and too many teams need to fall apart there.

On the other hand, a long shot still is possible within the division - it just got that much harder Monday night. Given the Giants' remaining schedule and the Cowboys' injury concerns, both teams could start to stumble in the coming weeks. If the Eagles have any chance whatsoever, they will have to win seven of eight and beat both the Giants and the Cowboys on the road - far from an easy task.

4. San Diego could win the AFC West with a 9-7 record this season.
While the AFC West isn't quite as bad as last year's NFC West, it's not that much better either. For anyone who read my fantasy football articles before the season started, you know how much I thought of Philip Rivers (who is now on pace for something close to 73 interceptions. Sorry to everyone who drafted him in your league). But somehow the Chargers once again survived their traditional early-season struggles to remain tied for first in the division at 4-4.

After the Raiders and Chiefs both suffered disheartening losses at home, San Diego is set to recapture the division. The Chargers showed resilience against the Packers. They've been here before, and San Diego knows what it takes to win when it counts.

The Chargers don't have many easy games left on the schedule (Oakland twice, at Chicago, Denver, at Jacksonville, Buffalo, Baltimore, at Detroit). But in a division where even Tim Tebow and the Broncos have a chance to win, my money's on Rivers and the Chargers. I'd say it's about as safe a bet as Tom Cruise continuing to make Mission Impossible movies no one cares about. Just look at that picture. Yummy.

5. While on the AFC West, the Colts owe the Chiefs a Thank You card.
We should've known the hangover from last Monday night's win over the Chargers would lead to a nosedive for the Chiefs. Kansas City didn't just lose to the Dolphins. The Chiefs were thoroughly dominated by...(wait for it)...Matt Moore and Reggie Bush. Yikes!

The Dolphins are playing more inspired every week, while the Colts sunk to a new low as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones torched Indianapolis at home. The Colts have home games remaining against the Jaguars, Panthers and Titans, but it's looking more and more like Indianapolis will be Andrew Luck's new home unless Peyton Manning makes a rapid recovery.

6. The AFC East race got a little clearer with a three-way tie.
We've already touched on the Patriots loss, but the Jets went into Buffalo and earned an impressive victory over the Bills. With all three teams at 5-3 and tiebreakers split among all of them, every team has something to prove heading into the stretch run.

After Buffalo warmed everyone's hearts to start the season, the Bills have lost two of their last three and are backpedaling at the wrong time. The Buffalo defense has been below average all season, but Ryan Fitzpatrick's recent slump needs to end now. The Bills get a rematch with the Jets in a couple weeks, in what may be a must-win game for Buffalo.

As for New York and New England, their game Sunday night may come close to giving us a division winner in early November. Both teams have similarly easy remaining schedules (both play the Bills at home and the Eagles as their toughest games). If the Patriots find a way to rebound from their two-game losing streak and stop the Jets in New York, a season-sweep will give New England a two-game stranglehold on the Jets and the division.

7. Andy Dalton and the Bengals remain red hot (couldn't resist).

You had a better chance of earning a date with Olivia Wilde than predicting this type of start for the Bengals. Granted, the Bengals schedule has worked in their favor, but 6-2 is still tied for the best record in the AFC. If the Cincinnati defense stays solid, it's not impossible to see the Bengals in the playoff race come Week 17 as they take on the Ravens at home.

Bear with me.

Four of the eight remaining games for the Bengals are against the Steelers and Ravens, but let's say Cincy steals just one (perhaps in that last week at home  when the Ravens may have nothing to play for). That puts the Bengals at 7-5. If Cincinnati can manage to win their other four games (Cleveland, Houston, at St. Louis, and Arizona), could the Bengals really sneak into the playoffs at 11-5? Beating the Texans will be tough, but let's not count out the red-headed wonder and A.J. Green just yet.

8. The Buccaneers have taken a big step backward from last season.
While losing in New Orleans is nothing to get too worried about, it's more the way Tampa Bay played that's concerning. Coming into the season, the Buccaneers thought they had the young pieces in place at the skill positions to challenge for the NFC South title for years to come. But Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams have all been huge disappointments in 2011.

Freeman has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, Blount is coming back from a knee injury that caused him to miss two games and Williams hasn't caught a touchdown since Week 1. After defensive stud Gerald McCoy's season ended Sunday, the defense will continue to give up too many points for Tampa to keep pace. By the end of the season, the Buccaneers will be lucky to finish at .500.

9. 2010 Sam Bradford is ancient history.
This is a shame. When Bradford came into the draft, everyone's biggest concern was his ability to stay healthy. And although he missed a few games this season with ankle issues, he's been able to survive an atrocious offensive line for the past year and a half. Unfortunately, after Bradford's superb rookie campaign, the sophomore slump has crippled Bradford and the Rams this season.

Arizona gave Bradford every opportunity to steal a win on the road, and although he finished with 23 completions, Bradford only recorded 255 yards and no touchdowns (again showcasing his struggles to stretch the field this season). After completing 60 percent of his passes while throwing for more than 3,500 yards in 2010, Bradford has as many picks as touchdowns and a completion percentage under 55 this season. Hopefully Brandon Lloyd helps the Rams offense turn things around before Bradford becomes a question mark heading into 2012. No one wants to declare Bradford a one-hit wonder (leaving him with the likes of Sir Mix-a-Lot and Chumbawamba).

10. The Packers are going to make Thanksgiving dinner obsolete.
After holding off a late Chargers comeback in San Diego, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers improved to 8-0. With only home games against the Vikings and the Buccaneers standing between Green Bay and Thanksgiving, Mike McCarthy & Co. are hardly shaking in their boots.

As for the Lions, the schedule is a little less friendly before Turkey Day. Jim Schwartz's bunch has a tough test in Chicago before returning home to battle with Cam Newton and the Panthers. Even if the Lions are 7-3 heading into an undefeated showdown with the Lambeau Leapers, it'll still be the first meaningful Thanksgiving game in Detroit in my lifetime.



I've decided to shun Andy Bernard for the next three years. It's an Amish technique. It's like slapping someone with silence. I was shunned from the age of four until my sixth birthday for not saving the excess oil from a can of tuna.

How the NFL Season is Going to End

With the NFL hitting its midway point, I haven't been able to turn on a sports channel or scroll through a sports site without inevitably being subjected to some bland midseason awards segment. So as I slowly sank into my all-too-comfortable chair, I was gifted with another great idea to kill time with some football nerdiness.

Since people exhausted most of the reasons why Aaron Rodgers is going to win the MVP or how the Steelers and 49ers are playing so well right, I figured I'd tell you how the NFL season would end.

So I went through the remaining games on the schedule and spent a couple minutes determining the outcome of each one (See, this is the great thing about being unemployed. Clearly, a real job would keep me from all this insomnia-induced fun. Pretty much, I feel like Edward Norton pre-Tyler Durden right now).

Anyway, I'll give a quick recap of how I think the regular season will play out, but if you want to check out the final standings, click here (I know it doesn't look like a hyperlink because Blogger sucks, but "click here" is actually a link).

Here are a few things I found interesting when I looked back:

1. I somehow have the Jets winning their next nine games to finish 13-3, win the division ahead of the Patriots and earn a bye. I don't know why. I hate the Jets. The Jets are the Kim Kardashians of the NFL. I just think they'll beat the Patriots, Eagles and the Bills twice (their only difficult games remaining).

2. The Eagles will miss the playoffs because of their early-season losses. This is actually really interesting if you get into the tiebreakers. The Cowboys and Eagles will both finish 10-6 to tie for first in the division. Since the Cowboys will beat the Eagles to even the head-to-head series, the tiebreaker goes to division games (where I also think they'll be tied thanks to splitting with the Giants and sweeping the Redskins). Next up on the division tiebreaker list: common games, which means their games against the NFC West and AFC East. This is where the Cowboys beating the 49ers and the Eagles blowing a 20-point lead against them will cost Philadelphia (also the Eagles already lost to the Bills and the Cowboys still get to play Buffalo in Dallas).

As if that wasn't hard enough for my Philly heart to take, the Falcons, who also will finish 10-6, earn the final wild-card spot ahead of the Eagles thanks to that Week 2 collapse after Michael Vick left with a concussion. If this actually happens, it'll replace the end of Old Yeller as the saddest moment in the "It's not that serious, but I still can't help but get emotional" section of my life. I'm fairly confident Old Yeller is the guy version of The Notebook.

3. The Ravens could yet again have to go through Pittsburgh if they fail to top the Steelers for the division title. Joe Flacco hasn't gotten any better, so the Ravens best hope relies on the Steelers' defense continuing to lose its main guys to injuries (looks like Woodley and Harrison might not play this week). If the Ravens have any chance at making a run at the Super Bowl, winning the division is a must.

4. Thanks to an unforgivably horrendous division, the 49ers appear to be a near-lock for the second bye in the NFC. Unfortunately for San Francisco, the Niners don't match up well with a lot of their potential opponents (the Saints, Cowboys, and Lions all excel at throwing the ball). I don't want to compare the 49ers to last year's Chiefs, but a similar playoff outcome appears likely.

5. After all of the futility in the NFL's basement, the winner of the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes could come down to a coin flip (cue an exorbitant amount of corny Luck headlines). If the Dolphins and Colts both finish at 1-15, their fate could be determined by a simple "heads or tails" call. How fitting.

6. If the playoffs actually turn out this way, we'll be in for a fantastic wild-card weekend. Without further ado, here's the playoff breakdown.


WILD CARD

(3) Saints 27, (6) Falcons 24 - Whenever two division rivals meet in the playoffs, it's almost always a must-see game. Offensively, both teams are great at what the other team struggles to stop (the Falcons can't stop the pass and the Saints can't stop the run). But playing at home gives the Saints a notable advantage, and unless Drew Brees throws one-too-many interceptions, New Orleans marches on.

(5) Lions 24, (4) Cowboys 21 - A rematch from an early-season game where the Cowboys jumped out to a quick lead at home only to watch the Calvin Johnson Show snatch a win for Detroit. The sequel should be even better than the original (I'm thinking Superman 2 besting the first simply because the action and villains are too good. And yes, Dallas will definitely be considered the villains in this game).

Quick side note. The NFL should really think about adopting the NBA's playoff standard for home-field advantage. As exciting as last season's Seahawks upset of the Saints was, the team with the better record deserves to play at home.

(3) Chargers 20, (6) Ravens 17 - This is the worst possible draw for Baltimore. The Chargers defense is good at stopping the run and creating turnovers. San Diego doesn't run the ball (the Ravens' biggest strength is their run defense), and I'm still not sold on the Baltimore secondary (outside of Ed Reed, of course). The only way I see the Ravens winning this game is if Ed Reed returns an interception for a touchdown.

Another quick side note. This would be a rematch of the Week 15 Sunday Night game. With only three weeks in between games, it's safe to say not much would change. I'd give a big advantage to Baltimore's coaching staff over San Diego's when it comes to making the right adjustments (basically because Norv Turner lives to fail), so there's your hope Ravens fans.

(5) Patriots 31, (4) Texans 21 - Easily the best scenario for the Patriots if they somehow don't win the division. Wade Phillips made great improvements to the Texans defense, but Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. Also, as bad as New England's passing defense has been so far, I don't trust Matt Schaub. Bill Belichick will take away Andre Johnson and the Patriots will advance.


DIVISIONAL

(1) Packers 23, (5) Lions 21 - Another great divisional showdown. The Lions match up very well against the Packers. Detroit arguably has the best pass rush in the league and Matt Stafford could pick apart Green Bay's secondary. The Packers will want to see the Lions about as badly as Shakira wants to see Gerard Pique, but Aaron Rodgers and his championship belt move on. The bigger concern: how do you cheat on Shakira? Seriously?

(3) Saints 19, (2) 49ers 13 - Not this year for the Niners. Frank Gore will have a great game. Drew Brees will have a better one. I would be surprised if Brees didn't throw the ball 55 times in this game given the brick wall Patrick Willis and San Francisco's rushing defense has created. But Alex Smith still plays for the 49ers so I'm betting heavily on a costly late-game interception to end San Fran's storybook season.

(5) Patriots 23, (1) Steelers 20 - This could arguably be the greatest second-round game of all time. I hate exaggeration and hyperbole, but it really doesn't get any better than this in the divisional round (which also makes this the hardest game of the bunch to call). The Steelers won the midseason game. The Patriots have Tom Brady. Both teams are overflowing with playoff experience. In the end, Pittsburgh keeps Brady and Co. in check for most of the game, but a last-minute, game-winning touchdown to The Great White Hope (aka Wes Welker) sends New England on to the next round.

(3) Chargers 16, (2) Jets 10 - Another intriguing rematch from the middle of the season. Remember when I said I hate the Jets? Here's my redemption for giving them a bye. New York's D will frustrate Philip Rivers all day, but Mark Sanchez will do his best to keep his team from fulfilling Rex Ryan's promise. And then Jets fans will go all Gangs of New York on Sanchez as his NFL career goes the way of Jake Delhomme.


CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

(1) Packers 34, (3) Saints 30 - By now, the opening game of the season seems like a distant memory, but it sure was one hell of a game. Not much defense was played, and not much will be played here again. But Charles Woodson and the Packers defense is just good enough to hold the Saints to a couple field goals as Green Bay returns to the Super Bowl.

(5) Patriots 30, (3) Chargers 24 - Another shootout. Tom Brady is better than Philip Rivers. More importantly, Bill Belichick is substantially better than Norv Turner. I'd say it's like comparing Emma Watson to Rosie O'Donnell. It's just not fair. New England outscores San Diego, rumors swirl about Turner getting fired and the Patriots return to the big game.


SUPER BOWL

Packers 31, Patriots 27 - Would be a phenomenal Super Bowl for every imaginable reason. New dynasty versus old dynasty. The likable Aaron Rodgers against the douche bag Tom Brady. But the most intriguing match-up? Charles Woodson on Wes Welker. The best slot cover guy in the NFL against the best slot receiver. Kanye versus Taylor Swift. Jimmy Fallon versus being funny. NBA owners versus the players. The analogies could go on for days (Christian Bale versus anger management?).

Anyway, the Packers will win back-to-back titles as Vince Lombardi lights up a cigar from the grave. It looks like we're headed for another fantastic finish to the season. So pull up a chair, order some pizza and wings (and NFL Red Zone if you haven't already), forget that you have work to get done and enjoy it before Mel Kiper Jr. returns.



I'm always thinking one step ahead. Like a carpenter...who builds stairs.

Fantasy Football Cheatsheet

For anyone interested, I've created a printable cheatsheet that includes all the rankings on a single page. Unfourtnately, Blogger here doesn't let you share PDFs, and if I just posted it you couldn't print it without printing everything else too. Lame, I know. So anyone who wants a cheatsheet feel free to email me (zachary.rodgers237@gmail.com) or let me know some other way if you want me to send you one. As with the rankings, the cheatsheet will be updated every Monday until the start of the season. Enjoy!

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (Bye: 8)
2. Michael Vick, Eagles (7)
3. Tom Brady, Patriots (7)
4. Philip Rivers, Chargers (6)
5. Drew Brees, Saints (11)
6. Peyton Manning, Colts (11)
7. Tony Romo, Cowboys (5)
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (11)
9. Matt Schaub, Texans (11)
10. Matt Ryan, Falcons (8)
11. Matthew Stafford, Lions (9)
12. Eli Manning, Giants (7)
13. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers (8)
14. Sam Bradford, Rams (5)
15. Jay Cutler, Bears (8)
16. Joe Flacco, Ravens (5)
17. Matt Cassell, Chiefs (6)
18. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals (6)
19. Mark Sanchez, Jets (8)
20. Kyle Orton, Broncos (6)
21. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills (7)
22. Donovan McNabb, Vikings (9)
23. David Garrard, Jaguars (9)
24. Jason Campbell, Raiders (8)

Running Backs

1. Arian Foster, Texans (Bye: 11)
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (9)
3. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (6)
4. Ray Rice, Ravens (5)
5. Chris Johnson, Titans (6)
6. LeSean McCoy, Eagles (7)
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders (8)
8. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (9)
9. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (11)
10. Frank Gore, 49ers (7)
11. Michael Turner, Falcons (8)
12. Steven Jackson, Rams (5)
13. Matt Forte, Bears (8)
14. Peyton Hillis, Browns (5)
15. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (7)
16. Jahvid Best, Lions (9)
17. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers (8)
18. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (6)
19. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (9)
20. Shonn Greene, Jets (8)
21. Ryan Mathews, Chargers (6)
22. Felix Jones, Cowboys (5)
23. Mark Ingram, Saints (11)
24. Cedric Benson, Bengals (7)
25. Fred Jackson, Bills (7)
26. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins (5)
27. Ryan Grant, Packers (9)
28. Joseph Addai, Colts (11)
29. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks (6)
30. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots (7)
31. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (9)
32. Beanie Wells, Cardinals (6)
33. Mike Tolbert, Chargers (6)
34. Brandon Jacobs, Giants (7)
35. Reggie Bush, Dolphins (5)
36. Michael Bush, Raiders (8)
37. C.J. Spiller, Bills (7)
38. Ryan Torain, Redskins (5)
39. LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets (8)
40. Pierre Thomas, Saints (11)
41. James Starks, Packers (8)
42. Thomas Jones, Chiefs (6)
43. Danny Woodhead, Patriots (7)

Wide Receivers

1. Andre Johnson, Texans (Bye: 11)
2. Calvin Johnson, Lions (9)
3. Roddy White, Falcons (8)
4. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (6)
5. Hakeem Nicks, Giants (7)
6. Greg Jennings, Packers (8)
7. Reggie Wayne, Colts (11)
8. Mike Wallace, Steelers (11)
9. Miles Austin, Cowboys (5)
10. Vincent Jackson, Chargers (6)
11. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs (6)
12. DeSean Jackson, Eagles (7)
13. Mike Williams, Buccaneers (8)
14. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins (5)
15. Wes Welker, Patriots (7)
16. Santonio Holmes, Jets (8)
17. Marques Colston, Saints (11)
18. Steve Johnson, Bills (7)
19. Dez Bryant, Cowboys (5)
20. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles (7)
21. Brandon Lloyd, Broncos (6)
22. Percy Harvin, Vikings (9)
23. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (5)
24. Mario Manningham, Giants (7)
25. Kenny Britt, Titans (6)
26. Sidney Rice, Seahawks (6)
27. Chad Ochocinco, Patriots (7)
28. Austin Collie, Colts (11)
29. Mike Thomas, Jaguars (9)
30. Santana Moss, Redskins (5)
31. Steve Smith, Panthers (9)
32. Pierre Garcon, Patriots (11)
33. Lance Moore, Saints (11)
34. Julio Jones, Falcons (8)
35. A.J. Green, Bengals (7)
36. Roy Williams, Bears (8)
37. Braylon Edwards, 49ers (7)
38. Mike Sims-Walker, Rams (5)
39. Johnny Knox, Bears (8)
40. Hines Ward, Steelers (11)
41. Davone Bess, Dolphins (5)
42. Danny Amendola, Rams (5)
43. Michael Crabtree, 49ers (7)
44. Jacoby Ford, Raiders (8)
45. Robert Meacham, Saints (11)
46. Jordy Nelson, Packers (8)
47. Malcolm Floyd, Chargers (6)
48. Plaxico Burress, Jets (8)
49. Mike Williams, Seahawks (6)
50. Deion Branch, Patriots (7)

Tight Ends

1. Antonio Gates, Chargers (Bye: 6)
2. Jason Witten, Cowboys (5)
3. Jermichael Finley, Packers (8)
4. Dallas Clark, Colts (11)
5. Vernon Davis, 49ers (7)
6. Jimmy Graham, Saints (11)
7. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars (9)
8. Owen Daniels, Texans (11)
9. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers (8)
10. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions (9)
11. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons (8)
12. Rob Gronkowksi, Patriots (7)
13. Chris Cooley, Redskins (5)
14. Dustin Keller, Jets (8)
15. Zach Miller, Seahawks (6)
16. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots (7)
17. Greg Olsen, Panthers (9)
18. Jared Cook, Titans (6)
19. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals (7)
20. Brent Celek, Eagles (7)
21. Heath Miller, Steelers (11)
22. Ben Watson, Browns (5)
23. Tony Moeaki, Chiefs (6)
24. Kevin Boss, Raiders (8)
25. Todd Heap, Cardinals (6)

Kickers

1. Nate Kaeding, Chargers (Bye: 6)
2. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (7)
3. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders (8)
4. Mason Crosby, Packers (8)
5. Matt Bryant, Falcons (8)
6. Neil Rackers, Texans (11)
7. Garrett Hartley, Saints (11)
8. Josh Brown, Rams (5)
9. Alex Henery, Eagles (7)
10. Adam Vinatieri, Colts (7)
11. Dan Carpenter, Dolphins (5)
12. Billy Cundiff, Ravens (5)
13. Rob Bironas, Titans (6)
14. Nick Folk, Jets (8)

DEFs

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bye: 11)
2. Green Bay Packers (8)
3. New York Jets (8)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (7)
5. New England Patriots (7)
6. Chicago Bears (8)
7. Baltimore Ravens (5)
8. New York Giants (7)
9. San Diego Chargers (6)
10. Detroit Lions (9)
11. New Orleans Saints (11)
12. Atlanta Falcons (8)

Fantasy Football Rankings

With the football season only a couple weeks away, fantasy football drafts will be getting underway pretty shortly. For anyone interested, I've added rankings on the sidebar for each position, and included PPR rankings for RBs, WRs, and TEs. I'll be updating them each Monday so feel free to check back and see if anything has changed (for instance, Peyton Manning may not start the season so obviously his value goes down, but so does Reggie Wayne's, Dallas Clark's, etc.). As always, feel free to comment and let me know what you think or if I should add anything else.

The NFL lockout is ancient history. Fantasy football is back!

Three months ago, I was sitting at my graduation when DeMaurice Smith, the Executive Director of the NFL Player's Association, stepped to the podium as the guest speaker (and three months later I'm still unemployed, so no, I'm not gloating). I vividly remember thinking about two things - neither of which had anything to do with my future - as Smith began his droning sermon on change and pride.

1. This is the guy working for the players? No wonder Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder are so smug. We may never watch another game again.

And more importantly...

2. What about fantasy football? How will I spend my Sundays? How will I waste an immeasurable amount of time reading up on all these players if there's no season?

Thankfully, greed was sufficed, and the season is back on track. For fantasy football nerds alike, this means one hectic week of free agency in which teams swapped players at a frenzied rate. Think Microsoft, Apple, Sony and McDonald's all declaring bankruptcy, and the stock exchange only opening for an hour of trading afterward. Maybe that's a bad analogy, but either way it's a lot of player movement to catch up on.

So, I will use two blatantly unimaginative sections to break it all down for you. First off, we'll have the cliche New Faces in New Places category, detailing the mainstream players who changed teams this offseason and, more importantly, how it affected their fantasy value. And secondly, we have our Sleepers and Busts category, fairly self-explanatory.

Now this is usually the paragraph where some pompous writer tries to tell you why his or her opinion is right (myself included). But instead of the unnecessary listing of qualifications, I'll leave you with this. From July 15 through August 15 every summer, I retreat into my Excel spreadsheets to create my own little fantasy football manifesto. I endlessly skim through articles and rankings, noting worthless stats for no apparent reason. I am a fantasy football nerd. My therapist and I have come to grips with that. If a movie were made about my obsession, Michael Cera would kick my ass in it. Yeah, I'm that dorky.

But enough of the ranting and useless self-promotion. Time for Part 1.

New Faces in New Places

1. Kevin Kolb (Philadelphia to Arizona) - Of all the quarterbacks to change cities, Kolb is the only one with any possible fantasy value. And that's even though he's probably still a worse quarterback than say a Donovan McNabb or Matt Hasselbeck. However, Kevin Kolb gets to throw to Larry Fitzgerald. Even Ben Affleck looks good when he teams up with Matt Damon.

That said, Kolb is still nowhere near a fantasy starter. Hell, I wouldn't even want him as my backup. With a West Coast background, Kolb will be great for yards, but suffer in the red zone. Not even the super-likable Fitzgerald can turn Kevin Kolb into the next Kurt Warner.

2. Chris Johnson (Tennessee to ...a holdout?) - Plenty of noteworthy running backs moved on this summer, but none with any real fantasy value. Reggie Bush, Willis McGahee, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown and Marion Barber are not worth your time unless you're playing in at least a 14-team league.

And now to Chris Johnson, who didn't change teams, but also still hasn't reported to camp. There is no denying Johnson's talent and fantasy production. And Matt Hasselbeck should only help (Hasselbeck is definitely an upgrade over Kerry Collins and Vince Young). But holdouts never end well for fantasy stars. Holdouts create injuries, chemistry issues and an overall drop in production - just ask Michael Crabtree and Vincent Jackson. If Johnson reports in the next week or two, there won't be any problems. If not, draft him early at your own risk.

3. The WR Pentaverate (Plaxico Burress: jail to the Jets, Sidney Rice: Minnesota to Seattle, Roy Williams: Dallas to Chicago, Braylon Edwards: New York to San Francisco & Chad Ochocinco: Cincinnati to New England) - Talk about the usual suspects. Outside of Sidney Rice, every name listed above has a red flag attached with their file. However, when it comes to receivers, fantasy owners have to sort through the minefield to separate the bad eggs (see: Randy Moss in Tennessee) from the guys with something to prove (Tampa Bay's Mike Williams).

For the above group, the results will be mixed. Sidney Rice got what he needed - a ticket out of Minnesota and away from Tarvaris Jackson. But he landed with the Seahawks - and back with Tarvaris Jackson. Sorry Sidney, you're a fantasy benchwarmer this year.

The same goes for New York's favorite gun-wielding Super Bowl hero. Putting aside the questions about his health and remaining talent, competing with Santonio Holmes, Derrick Mason and Dustin Keller in a run-first offense leaves Plaxico undraftable.

Onto the three with some upside, starting with Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams. Edwards and Williams are the same receiver - they are big, slow, lead the league in dropped passes every other year and are nice targets in the red zone. Since the 49ers and Bears both needed big targets in their depleted receiving corps, Edwards and Williams have a chance to both pull off double-digit touchdown seasons. Or they could completely tank. Or Bob Saget could be a total creep? Who knows?

And finally, the most interesting case - Mr. Ochocinco. The jury is very much still out on Chad's potential impact in New England. With Tom Brady fulfilling every dream Carson Palmer never could, the Ocho might be able to finally get back to producing. Don't expect a Randy Moss-esque career resurrection from Chad, but take a chance on him as your third receiver or flex guy.

Time for the everyone's favorite past time...Sleepers & Busts.

Sleepers

1. Philip Rivers - It's difficult to consider a guy in the top 10 at his position a sleeper, but Rivers' production is still under the radar. After Aaron Rodgers at numbero uno for quarterbacks, there's a big logjam. Michael Vick's injury concerns and potential relapse leave him vulnerable, and Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been posting similar numbers for the past couple of years. But what people don't realize...so has Rivers. Indulge my boring stats for just one second.

2010

Brees - 4,620 yards & 33 TDs

Brady - 3,900 yards & 36 TDs

Manning - 4,700 yards & 33 TDs

Rivers - 4,710 yards & 30 TDs

2009

Brees - 4,388 yards & 34 TDs

Brady - 4,398 yards & 28 TDs

Manning - 4,500 yards & 33 TDs

Rivers - 4,254 yards & 28 TDs

2008

Brees - 5,069 yards & 34 TDs

Brady - tore his ACL

Manning - 4,002 yards & 27 TDs

Rivers - 4,009 yards & 34 TDs

Not much of a difference, especially if your league counts passing touchdowns for less (which most do). Throw in a healthy Antonio Gates, a receiving duo of Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd and Ryan Mathews out of the backfield and Rivers very well could be the second best fantasy quarterback this year.

2. Jahvid Best - The Lions spent their first-round pick on running back Mikel Leshoure to serve in a timeshare with Best after he spent the backend of last season hurt. Naturally, Leshoure tore his Achilles' last week and is out for the season.

Best is still as fragile as those little glass figurines we can't help but touch (and break) as kids, but his upside is tremendous. With Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson keeping the safeties out of the box, Best should have plenty up space to maneuver. And his value goes way up in a points-per-reception (PPR) league. Think of it as Britney Spears the singer - average at best (the standard league), and then Britney Spears the singer wearing a skimpy school girl outfit and driving young boys crazy - pun intended and clearly, her sales get a lot better (the PPR league).

3. Mario Manningham - After the Giants saw half their receiving corps leave for new chances (Kevin Boss in Oakland and Steve Smith in Philadelphia), who else is left? Hakeem Nicks is still the main guy, but after his breakout season last year, plenty of double teams will be coming his way this season. The Giants should still be a run-first team, but Manningham could turn into a solid #2 or #3 receiver if he can put it together.

Busts

1. Matt Ryan - Unfortunately, being a great, young quarterback doesn't necessarily translate into being a great fantasy producer. It's hard not to like Ryan. His presence and poise are beyond his years, and he seems like a genuinely good guy. This leaves only one conclusion. Matt Ryan will be the Troy Aikman of this generation's fantasy quarterbacks - great quarterback, but his stats take a backseat to a solid running game and a focus on winning.

A lot of people believe Julio Jones will turn Ryan into a fantasy star this year. They are forgetting about Atlanta's other rookie - Jacquizz Rodgers. The former Oregon State running back, along with the steady combo of Michael Turner and Jason Snelling, will continue to dominate games by eating up the clock and controlling possession. Great formula for winning football games...not so great for winning fantasy games.

2. Any Redskin, Jaguar, Seahawk or Bronco - Let's give a team-by-team breakdown here...

Your Washington Redskins. At quarterback...(waiting)...(waiting)...(the PA guy frantically shuffles through papers)...who knows. It could be John Beck. It could be Rex Grossman. It really doesn't matter. Would you rather marry Sarah Jessica Parker or Hilary Swank?

As for the rest of the team, Ryan Torain and Tim Hightower will split time for a team that will struggle to score. No, thank you. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley are nice backup plans at this point. Sorry, Washington.

Moving on, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Another QB quandary. Keep with the steady, but not fantastic David Garrard or let rookie Blaine Gabbert start his development? Neither will do anything worthwhile. Maurice Jones-Drew is still a real nice back, but running backs and knee injuries don't mix. Let someone else take the risk. And like the Redskins, Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis are nothing more than bench players at the receiver and tight end spots.

Poor Pete Carroll. Not really. I could think of no worse penalty for all those years of under-the-table dealing at USC than having to put up with Tarvaris Jackson under center. And as awesome as Marshawn Lynch's beast mode performance was, he'll still be sharing the load with Justin Forsett this season. Like all the other offenses that struggle to score, receivers and tight ends become backup fantasy players. That means you, Sidney Rice and Zach Miller.

And now the Denver Broncos. A lot of offensive potential. Kyle Orton lit up fantasy scoreboards last year, connecting with Knowshon Moreno and Brandon Lloyd. The same thing very well could happen this year. But Tim Tebow is on the bench. In his second year, the pressure will be on the coaching staff to make Tebow the starter if the Broncos don't win early. If that happens, Moreno and Lloyd lose a lot of value.

Think Tiger Woods two years ago:

Tiger Woods now:

I don't want to take my shoes off. I just broke up with someone, Turtle, I'm exhausted.

The Big East Still Reigns Supreme

Coming into this season, many considered it to be a rebuilding year for the Big East. Instead, the Big East claimed a record ten spots in this week's bracket, including five of the top 12. More people were likely to pick yellow and orange as their favorite Starburst before they would've chosen Connecticut or Notre Dame to battle for a Big East title this season.

But heading into the start of conference play, here's the new bracket as well as some things to look for the rest of the season.

2011 Bracketology (Jan. 10, 2011)

Predicted conference winners will be noted with ALL CAPS and an asterik (*).

SOUTHEAST (New Orleans)	WEST (Anaheim)
Washington D.C.	Cleveland
(1) SYRACUSE*	(1) OHIO ST.*
(16) WAGNER* vs. BELMONT*	(16) FLORIDA ATLANTIC*
(8) North Carolina	(8) Louisville
(9) ST. MARY’S*	(9) Georgia
Denver	Tampa Bay
(5) Florida	(5) Texas A&M
(12) OAKLAND*	(12) Washington St.
(4) Missouri	(4) Georgetown
(13) VERMONT*	(13) Miami (FL) vs. UTAH ST.*
Chicago	Tulsa
(6) Kansas St.	(6) TEMPLE*
(11) Boston College	(11) Cincinnati
(3) Villanova	(3) Texas
(14) SAM HOUSTON ST.*	(14) AUSTIN PEAY*
Tucson	Chicago
(7) West Virginia	(7) Wisconsin
(10) Old Dominion	(10) Oklahoma St.
(2) SAN DIEGO ST.*	(2) Notre Dame
(15) HAMPTON*	(15) COASTAL CAROLINA*
SOUTHWEST (San Antonio)	EAST (Newark)
Tulsa	Charlotte
(1) KANSAS*	(1) DUKE*
(16) FAIRFIELD* vs. JACKSON ST.*	(16) NORTHERN COLORADO*
(8) St. John’s	(8) Minnesota
(9) Arizona	(9) Gonzaga
Tucson	Tampa Bay
(5) CENTRAL FLORIDA*	(5) Purdue
(12) Richmond	(12) USC vs. Memphis
(4) Illinois	(4) Tennessee
(13) CHARLESTON*	(13) HOFSTRA*
Charlotte	Denver
(6) UNLV	(6) WASHINGTON*
(11) Baylor	(11) BUTLER*
(3) KENTUCKY*	(3) BYU
(14) LONG BEACH ST.*	(14) AKRON*
Cleveland	Washington D.C.
(7) Michigan St.	(7) Vanderbilt
(10) MISSOURI ST.*	(10) Virginia Tech
(2) Pittsburgh	(2) Connecticut
(15) HARVARD*	(15) AMERICAN*

LAST FOUR IN: USC, Richmond, Memphis, Miami (FL)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Florida St., Marquette, Wichita St., Dayton

NEXT FOUR OUT: UCLA, VCU, Michigan, Xavier

Teams Ahead of Schedule for the NCAA Tournament

Over the past couple of years, the Mountain West Conference has deservedly seen multiple teams dance come tournament time. This year, the MWC may have two teams finish in the Top 10. San Diego St. and BYU combined have lost one game so far this season. Both teams also earned three impressive non-conference victories. San Diego St. took down Gonzaga on the road, as well as St. Mary's and Wichita St. The BYU Cougars notched wins over Arizona, St. Mary's and Utah St (and they already won at UNLV). Unless Jimmer Fredette tries to get a discounted tattoo or the entire San Diego St. team sells their jerseys, it's probably a safe bet both will finish the regular season in the Top 10.

St. John's and Cincinnati are two more teams from the Big East off to unexpected starts. While the Bearcats finally suffered their first loss of the season (on the road to Villanova), wins over Dayton and Xavier will give Cincinnati some extra breathing room if those two schools can get things turned around. Meanwhile, Steve Lavin and his extra greasy hair appear to be just what the doctor ordered in New York. Lavin's team won their first three Big East games, including upsets over Georgetown and West Virginia (in Morgantown). Even though Lavin's hair looks as oily as a Jersey Shore smush session (new season started on Thursday and Sammi's already annoying. I'm shocked.), St. John's has turned Madison Square Garden into a real college basketball stadium in January and February.

The final nod goes to mid-major constant Old Dominion. The Monarchs picked up wins against Clemson and what seems like the entire Atlantic-10 (really it was just Xavier, Richmond and Dayton). ODU was also a three-pointer away from knocking off Georgetown. While they dropped their conference opener at Delaware, Old Dominion should be in good shape to lock up an at-large bid (if need be) with a decent showing in the Colonial.

Teams Failing to Live Up to High Expectations (The Kwame Brown Category)

You could write a book about the terrible play of the ACC so far, but I'll try to limit it to a paragraph. There really are not enough adjectives to describe just how bad it has been (although my favorites are deplorable and hopeless). And the worst part is now that conference play started, everyone's just going to beat each other up and finish 9-7 or 8-8 - except for Wake Forest and Georgia Tech - while Duke strolls to an undefeated regular season. One can only imagine who Seth Greenberg blames this year if Virginia Tech doesn't make the tournament. My money's on Barack Obama or the BCS. Neither make any sense, but if Gwyneth Paltrow can sing a Cee-Lo Green song and Vince Vaughn can keep playing the same character in his movies over and over again, clearly there is nothing holding Greenberg back.

Michigan St. was the popular pick to challenge Duke coming into this season. While Sparty & Co. put up a valiant effort at Cameron Indoor, they fell short (and never quite got back up). Tom Izzo's group has already lost five games this year, most recently against Penn St. Yes, Penn St. still does in fact have a basketball team. The Big Ten schedule will offer plenty of opportunities for redemption, but the Spartans better not wait too long or they'll end up with an uphill road come the Big Dance.

One of the best things about the NCAA Tournament is all the upsets. No one can ever predict who the Cinderella is going to be (I really would've appreciated a heads-up from Ohio before last year's tournament). Unfortunately, this is looking like an off-year for the mid-majors. The Mountain West's top three teams are off to a great start, but they may not get a fourth bid if New Mexico doesn't get hot quickly. Both the Missouri Valley and the Colonial have been multi-bid leagues in the past, but there's a chance only the conference tournament winners make it this year. Even Memphis is rebuilding with only one notable non-conference win to speak of - and it was against Miami (FL). Hopefully some teams start making some moves, or else the mid-majors are going to be lonelier than Jake Gyllenhaal when Selection Sunday arrives (and I'm sorry but I'm still laughing about that picture so it was a must).

Three Random Predictions for March

1. Central Florida will be the second-highest seeded Florida team in the tournament.

I know it's not exactly a Keanu Reeves-esque leap, but it's still unexpected. The Knights already beat Florida and Miami (FL) in the non-conference, and Marcus Jordan is better than most people expected (and can do more than just dunk). Don't expect the Knights to hold on to a five seed as seen above, and the loss at Houston won't help their chances. But if they can manage a split with Memphis and a decent conference run, UCF should be a lock for the tournament.

2. Washington will finish the regular season in the Top 10.

I'm a big fan of the Huskies. Isaiah Thomas and Abdul Gaddy are getting things going with a 4-0 conference start. Washington already got wins on the road against both L.A. schools (USC and UCLA). If the Huskies can sweep their last three games - a homestand against Washington St., UCLA and USC, they will carry plenty of momentum with them into the NCAAs. The only risk: I have about as much faith in Lorenzo Romar as I do in David Akers these days.

3. Kentucky and John Calipari get knocked out of the tournament early.

With Kanter being permanently ruled ineligible, all of a sudden Kentucky looks real vulnerable inside. While they may not get too tested against SEC teams that rely on perimeter scoring, the wrong matchup (say a Wisconsin or UNLV) could give Calipari a reason to sweat in Lexington. I'm sure Tubby Smith will be feeling nothing but sympathy up in Minnesota. But watching Calipari get booed by his own fans would be more rewarding than getting to watch Paul Walker get repeatedly punched in the face.

I like people I work with, generally. With four exceptions.