Predicting March Madness in Mid-November

Every year, for three weeks at the end of March and beginning of April, I reunite with my three good friends (couch, TV and laptop) for the best annual sporting event this beloved world has to offer - March Madness. While ESPN feeds my college basketball obsession in January by marketing Pitt-UConn games as "The Game of the Decade," I simply can't say no. It's really quite pathetic actually. If I were Darryl Strawberry, the NCAA tournament would be my white powder. So I choose to feed my habit by getting overly involved from the start.

Joe Lunardi has made the term "bracketology" a household word. Everyone loves to be that guy who comes out of nowhere to win the office pool. So consider this your place to come to do your homework prior to Selection Sunday. The bracket projections will be updated every couple of weeks until January, when conference play really gets under way and the brackets will become a weekly thing. But enough of my William Shatner-esque overdramatic introduction into something you'll probably only slightly care about (big Star Trek fan though). Here's the opening season Bracketology and team breakdowns.

2011 Bracketology (November 13, 2010)

Predicted conference winners will be noted with ALL CAPS and an asterik (*).

SOUTHEAST (New Orleans)	WEST (Anaheim)
Chicago	Tulsa
(1) MICHIGAN ST.*	(1) Kansas St.
(16) QUINNIPIAC* vs. AMERICAN*	(16) EAST TENNESSEE ST.*
(8) North Carolina St.	(8) WICHITA ST.*
(9) Marquette	(9) Minnesota
Tucson	Charlotte
(5) BUTLER*	(5) Tennessee
(12) Louisville	(12) OLD DOMINION*
(4) WASHINGTON*	(4) North Carolina
(13) OHIO*	(13) Connecticut vs. New Mexico
Tampa Bay	Denver
(6) SAN DIEGO ST.*	(6) BYU
(11) UCLA	(11) Dayton
(3) Florida	(3) Missouri
(14) WEBER ST.*	(14) OAKLAND*
Washington D.C.	Cleveland
(7) Wisconsin	(7) Purdue
(10) Richmond	(10) Georgia
(2) Villanova	(2) PITTSBURGH*
(15) MORGAN ST.*	(15) COASTAL CAROLINA*
SOUTHWEST (San Antonio)	EAST (Newark)
Tulsa	Charlotte
(1) KANSAS*	(1) DUKE*
(16) BOSTON* vs. JACKSON ST.*	(16) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN*
(8) Florida St.	(8) West Virginia
(9) Xavier	(9) Arizona
Denver	Tucson
(5) Georgetown	(5) TEMPLE*
(12) Texas A&M	(12) Northwestern vs. Missouri St.
(4) GONZAGA*	(4) MEMPHIS*
(13) UNLV	(13) WOFFORD*
Tampa Bay	Chicago
(6) Baylor	(6) Texas
(11) MURRAY ST.*	(11) Vanderbilt
(3) KENTUCKY*	(3) Illinois
(14) UC SANTA BARBARA	(14) FAIRFIELD*
Cleveland	Washington D.C.
(7) Virginia Tech	(7) Mississippi St.
(10) UTAH ST.*	(10) Maryland
(2) Ohio St.	(2) Syracuse
(15) PRINCETON*	(15) NORTH TEXAS*

SOUTHEAST BREAKDOWN

Michigan St. returns the bulk of the group that made it to the Final Four last year. The Spartans are led by their senior backcourt of Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers. While Lucas is likely the front-runner for Big Ten Player of the Year, the health of big men Delvon Roe and Draymond Green will likely be the biggest factor in whether or not Tom Izzo's bunch has another Final Four run in them.

It's hard not to love the way Villanova plays basketball. Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham may be gone, but the Wildcats will keep the up-tempo offense going for a full 40 minutes. Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes will be in charge of controlling the game, with Antonio Pena (how has he not graduated by now?) roaming the paint. Jay Wright and his 14 stylists will depend heavily on increased production from their deep sophomore class - Maalik Wayns, Mouphtaou Yarou, Dominic Cheek and Maurice Sutton - to find the right rotation to compete with Pittsburgh and Syracuse for the Big East title this year.

Florida is everyone's sleeper pick this year to upend Kentucky and John Calipari in the SEC. The talent is definitely there. The Gators' guard duo of Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker are quicker than Winona Ryder's hands in a department store. Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin will provide the senior leadership on the block. Also, don't forget about Chandler Parsons and his 17-foot wingspan. He always found a way to hit the big shot for the Gators last year.

Washington and Butler both played the role of Cinderella during last year's NCAA Tournament - with Butler a banked halfcourt shot away from stealing the entire show. Gordon Hayward may have left Indiana to make the Mormon women swoon out in Utah, but the expectations are still as high as ever for Butler, who will be forced to rely more on Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack for offense. Meanwhile, the Huskies are the early season favorites out in the Pac-10. Washington underachieved last year before making a late-season run in the conference tournament to make the Big Dance. Expect at least 25 wins from the Huskies in a weak Pac-10 this year.

North Carolina St. might be the team to keep an eye on from this group. While it's been a long time since the Wolfpack were serious NCAA contenders, freshman phenom C.J. Leslie offers the perfect complement to seniors Javier Gonzalez and Tracy Smith (think Katherine Heigl showing up and making people almost care about Ashton Kutcher again).

WEST BREAKDOWN

The Big East and ACC have been known for awhile as the premiere college basketball conferences in America. But over the last couple years, the Big 12 has made a serious case to take over that top spot - thanks largely to the Kansas St. Wildcats. Frank Martin gets his guys to play as hard as anyone else in the country, which counts for more than people think. He also recruits better than most coaches, so Kansas St. is going to be good for awhile as long as Martin and his crazy-man stare stay in Manhattan, Kan. If nothing else, you should watch the Wildcats just to see Jacob Pullen and his majestic beard in action.

There's a lot to love about the Pittsburgh Panthers this year. In fact, most bracketologists (Joe Lunardi included) have Pitt as a near-lock for a 1 seed this year - and rightfully so. Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker make up a nice combo to run the offense. The Panthers' main question will be finding offense inside if Gary McGhee can't get it done. But if all else fails, Jamie Dixon's boys play defense - kinda like no matter how bad Ke$ha's music may be, you can always count on it for a few good laughs when all the really drunk girls try to perform each lyric without falling over.

Back when Mike Anderson coached UAB, they were everyone's trendy upset pick come tournament time. When Anderson came to Missouri, the trend continuted when the Tigers upset heavily-favored Memphis in the NCAAs. But with a few years in the Big 12 under his belt and a nice recruiting class coming in, Anderson has the Tigers poised to challenge Kansas and Kansas St. for the conference title. Oh, and having Kim English (another Baltimore high school star Gary Williams couldn't sign) lead the way isn't bad for Missouri either.

Things can only get better from last year right? No one expects North Carolina to go and win the National Championship this year (except maybe those in Chapel Hill), but with all that talent Roy Williams will turn things around. Step 1: Land the top prospect in the country (done - Harrison Barnes will be an All-American). Step 2: Create a better sense of discipline so your team stops quitting on you (done - Will Graves got kicked off the team for not following team rules). Step 3: Find a real point guard (incomplete). For the Tar Heels to challenge Duke in the ACC, Larry Drew will have to stop turning the ball over and taking bad shots late in the game.

I could list about 32,249,643 things more exciting than watching a Big Ten basketball game. But this year I felt obligated to at least watch a few - until Robbie Hummel tore his ACL during Purdue's first practice. The Boilermakers had everything set for a title run, but now will likely be relegated to only a Sweet 16. Maybe JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore can conjure up the ghost of William Wallace to rally the troops, but I feel Purdue's championship dreams can be shelved next to all of Good Charlotte's unsold albums.

SOUTHWEST BREAKDOWN

It's hard to talk about an NCAA tournament these days without mentioning Kansas as a 1 seed. The Jayhawks lost more talent than Jessica Simpson ever had - Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry all suit up in the NBA these days. But they always know how to rebuild (and quickly). Kansas' offense will now run through the Morris twins (Marcus and Markieff) with Tyshawn Taylor, Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed facilitating. The kicker will likely be whether freshman guard Josh Selby can help fellow freshman Thomas Robinson provide a little depth off the Jayhawk bench.

The Evan Turner era in Columbus is officially over. Ohio St. now welcomes in the Jared Sullinger era. Sullinger headlines another outstanding freshmen class for Thad Matta and the Buckeyes. David Lighty and William Buford offer up some outside shooting with big man Dallas Lauderdale capable of cleaning up garbage points from Sullinger's double teams. If the Buckeyes can earn a split with Michigan St., Ohio St. has a chance for a 1 seed with more depth in the Big Ten this year.

Does anybody work the college basketball system better than John Calipari? Every time I see him do an interview, I can't help but hear "Smooth Criminal" playing in my head. Sometimes he gets caught (Derrick Rose), and sometimes he gets away with it (Eric Bledsoe). But no matter what you think of Calipari, you can't deny he's the best recruiter in the country. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe all left Kentucky for the NBA, but in come Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Enes Kanter, Jarrod Polson, Doron Lamb and Stacey Poole Jr. Since 2011 is an odd-numbered year, the NCAA is cracking down on Calipari. His big man recruit (Kanter) has already been declared ineligible. If the Wildcats can avoid any more suspensions, they should still end up winning the SEC.

Continuing with my Big 12 man-crush, don't sleep on another deep tournament run by the Baylor Bears. All they lost was Ekpe Udoh, and with LaceDarius Dunn only getting a three game suspension (Dunn and Chris Brown clearly must become best friends), Baylor could surprise some more teams come tournament time. Quincy Acy (great basketball name) needs to take over inside responsibilities for Udoh, but if the Bears can manage a decent seed I wouldn't want to see them on my side of the bracket.

EAST BREAKDOWN

It kills me to write this...(deep breath)...Duke is hands-down the best team in the country going into this year (I feel like I just cheated on my girlfriend with the loud, obnoxious girl no one likes even though she's really attractive). Speaking of really attractive, Kyle Singler is not. In fact, he looks like he's not all there when you see him play in person. But, man, is he effective. With Nolan Smith and fab freshman Kyrie Irving cutting up defenses, Singler's my early pick for NCAA Player of the Year. If Coach K (and his rat-like features) open up the offense, the Dukies could go undefeated and average close to 100 points a game while doing it.

Is there a nicer coach in all of college basketball than Jim Boeheim? He just moved into fifth on the all time wins list with Syracuse's first win of the season, and he continues to produce top teams for the Orange year after year. Syracuse, like so many quality programs do, keeps on replacing good players as they head to the NBA. Scoop Jardine will run the show for the Orange, but their big guys will be the focal point of their offense. Rick Jackson and Kris Joseph return, but Boeheim brings in seven-foot freshman Fab Melo to give Syracuse what could be the best frontline in the country.

By now you already know how I feel about the Big Ten as a basketball conference. But I suppose credit is still deserved for winning ugly. And nobody wins ugly quite like Illinois. The Illini bring everyone back from last year's team, headlined by a great scoring guard in Demetri McCamey. Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis have the experience inside to battle with the best the Big Ten has to offer. Sophomore guards D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul will have to make open shots when McCamey gets doubled. If they can do that and Illinois can score more than 80 points against a quality team, don't count out the Illini to make some noise in the Big Dance this year.

The small schools are always the toughest ones to peg heading into the tournament. Most of them haven't played really good teams since before Christmas, so it's hard to compare how their current team will fare against some of the big boys from the power conferences. It's like trying to predict a fight between J Woww and Beyonce - look at that picture and tell me you wouldn't walk the other way if J Woww started yelling at you. It's hard to pick against any Jersey Shore brawler (that's not really true), but we don't know what Beyonce would bring to the table. Maybe Jay-Z has taught her a move or two. My point is this: anybody can pick all the heavy hitters to make it to the Final Four, but finding the untested underdog with just enough junk in the trunk takes a keen eye.

But Memphis is in good hands with Josh Pastner, who continues John Calipari's recruiting legacy with the Tigers. Memphis is bringing in a consensus top five recruiting class featuring seven freshmen who could start for most big schools in the country. Will Barton is the best prospect for the group as he will likely lead the team in scoring by the end of the year. Memphis has four huge non-conference games this year (Kansas, Gonzaga, Georgetown and Tennessee). A couple of wins there - accompanied with a perfect record in Conference-USA - could have the Tigers in the hunt for a top seed come the end of the season.

You did the wave/nod, bro. She could smell your desperation from the doorway.

NFL Oddsmaker

Last week, the talk of the NFL was how either the New York Jets or the Pittsburgh Steelers would be your Super Bowl champion come November. The Jets failed to score a single point against a banged up Packers defense even a Trent Edwards-led Bills offense managed to score a touchdown on. Mark Sanchez is still learning in his second year, but he's likely to follow in the footsteps of fellow USC quarterbacks if he doesn't put it together soon (either underachieving with an offense featuring two Hall of Fame receivers or party it up with Laguna Beach stars until your arm goes away).

The Steelers offense didn't look much better against the Saints on Sunday night. So now we are left with a big mess when trying to figure out who we'll be watching in the big game come February. Tom Jackson and Trent Dilfer can only say the phrase "parody in the NFL" so many times. ESPN needs to let Mike Ditka go on an extensive rant about how Brad Childress is the worst thing to happen to the Vikings since Daunte Culpepper's knee went kaboom while also detailing how the Houston Texans are more of a tease than the ending of Inception (the top totally fell over). I'd feel more confident casting Clay Aiken as the new Batman than I would buying stock in any NFL team right now.

But, that being said, the Super Bowl will be rewarding if only to see Jerry Jones wipe the tears from his eyes as he is forced to watch another team hoist the Lombardi Trophy in his stadium. So let's breakdown each conference to see who are the most likely teams to play in the Super Bowl and watch a grown man cry.


NFC

New Orleans Saints (5-3) - 30% chance
Right now, the NFC is a complete toss up. But on Sunday night against Pittsburgh, the Saints defense showed they can win games while Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas get healthy. A second half turnaround should be in store for the defending champs.

Green Bay Packers (5-3) - 25% chance
The Packers got off to a slow start (probably thanks to so many people piling on the bandwagon over the summer), but look to be headed back in the right direction. Like the Saints, the Packers' biggest opponent is the injury bug. While the defense looked better last week, they could still use Al Harris and Atari Bigby to sure up that secondary. Plus, Donald Driver needs to give Aaron Rodgers all the weapons he can get since Green Bay runs the ball about as well as Snooki spells (yes, she's writing a book!).

New York Giants (5-2) - 20% chance
The G-Men have won four straight and everyone is calling for a New York/New York or Manning/Manning Super Bowl, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. While the Giants have a good defense again and some quality skill position guys, Eli Manning is still their quarterback. Eli's tied for the most INTs in the NFL so far, and has shown his ability to go cold for extended stretches before (remember last year when the Giants started 5-0 and then lost their next four games).

Atlanta Falcons (5-2) - 15% chance
The Falcons seem to be the mystery team in the NFC this year. Matt Ryan and that young offense look unstoppable at times, but if the Falcons can't run the ball effectively, can Ryan always be counted on to win games for them? In both the Falcons' losses this year, they rushed for less than 100 yards. The defense is good-but-not-great, so the Falcons' hopes likely reside with Matty Ice (I just like saying it) and the offense.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) - 10% chance
Michael Vick under center (playing the way he did a couple weeks ago) gives the Eagles a shot. The defense had been relied on to keep Philadelphia in games for years, but when Kenny Britt torches you for more than 250 yards and three scores, it's time to go back to the drawing board. The Eagles' brutal schedule and Andy Reid won't help much either. Seriously, if Creed can replace Scott Stapp why can't the Eagles replace Reid already?

Dallas Cowboys (1-6) - 0% chance
It feels so good to write this. Just for a few good laughs, let us check out where the Cowboys stand as of today.

Tony Romo: hurt and probably won't play again this year
Wade Phillips: just looks confused
DeMarcus Ware: yet to make an impact this year
Miles Austin: might be getting back together with Kim Kardashian
Dez Bryant: the lone bright spot in the Cowboys' season
Jerry Jones: needs a hug


AFC

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) - 25% chance
The AFC is once again stacked beyond belief. You could make an argument for five teams in the AFC being better than every team from the NFC. But Peyton Manning is still the best quarterback in the NFL, so the Colts top the list. Since their "out-of-nowhere" loss to the Jaguars, Indy has won three straight over pretty good teams (KC, Washington and Houston) to regain their form. The defense has greatly improved, but it may be asked to do a little more if Peyton's weapons keep hopping over to the sidelines.

New England Patriots (6-1) - 20% chance
Putting aside jokes about Tom Brady's hair and Bill Belichick's style trends, the Patriots simply know how to win. White America (underrated Eminem song) can't help but pull for the likes of Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead. After the Browns game this weekend, the Patriots will figure out just how good they are with a trip to Pittsburgh and a rematch with the Colts in Foxboro (which somehow is not a primetime game). I know I'm a month late on this, but Brandon Tate could be the key to the Patriots' success, since Deion Branch has looked older than Mick Jagger in his last couple games.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) - 20% chance
The Steelers are likely the most balanced team in the NFL. Big Ben has the receivers to carve up a defense, and Rashard Mendenhall emerged as the real deal this year. Since James Harrison isn't retiring any time soon and Troy Polamalu is still the best defensive player in the league, Pittsburgh makes a solid case for a Super Bowl run once again. Queue everyone's favorite playoff sports question. Does experience always trump old age come playoff time? The Steelers can't afford any key guys to go down with injuries if they want to bring home another ring for the Rooneys.

New York Jets (5-2) - 20% chance
The Jets defense is good. Really good. Mark Sanchez...not so much. Rex Ryan (and his 582-pound ego) put the weight of New York City on Sanchez's shoulders this offseason by naming the Jets the Super Bowl favorites. Can the Jets still win if Marky Mark's Funky Bunch (Shonn Greene and LT) don't control the game? The Green Bay Packers may have laid the blueprint for how to beat Fireman Ed & Co. this year.

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) - 10% chance
Over the summer, NFL gurus across the country were pledging their undying loyalty to Joe Flacco. While Flacco and Anquan Boldin were quick to develop some chemistry, whether or not the Delaware Blue Hen can lead the Ravens to the big game remains to be seen (my money's on no). But Ed Reed improves a secondary in need of an upgrade, and Ray Lewis is still the last man I'd want to bump into in a dark alley. If nothing else, the Ravens will continue to win the award for "Scariest Team to Look Across the Sideline At."

Tennessee Titans (5-3) - 4% chance
Fear the Gold Grill. Whether it's Kerry Collins or Vince Young under center, Chris Johnson gives the Titans a shot every Sunday. Unfortunately, the defense is nowhere near what it used to be and Tennessee's other offensive options are limited at best. But if Lil Wayne can still put out CDs while in jail, why can't Chris Johnson put the Titans in the Super Bowl?

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) - 1% chance
Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs. Aubrey Huff and Edgar Renteria led the San Francisco Giants to a World Series title, so I see no reason why Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones can't do the same for the Chiefs. With nine games left, Kansas City only plays one legitimate contender (Tennessee at home in Week 16). While I realize how crazy it sounds, Kansas City has a chance for a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. My Crazy Theory: The rest of the AFC beats each other up as the Chiefs get the top spot in the AFC at 12-4. Call me crazy, but having the AFC title go through Arrowhead Stadium would make things awfully interesting in late January.


The eyes are the groin of the head.